deebs
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Post by deebs on Jun 19, 2022 18:05:24 GMT
We're in the midst of it. The effects haven't been fully felt yet, but that day is not far off.
It's not as obvious as the 80s crash in the US yet, when two dozen crappy consoles released the same awful gash over and over again, but with tired sequels to increasingly meagre sales figures and companies like Sony and Xbox trying to diversify their exclusive releases onto the PC in an attempt to create interest for their platforms and maintain sales figures, it's definitely getting to that point.
Mid-tier games are thin on the ground, the indie gold rush of last decade is all but dead, no AAA games are complete on release because the publishers can't afford to spend enough time developing them or hold onto staff willing to put up with their shit for long enough. The wet slap of E3 over the last few years (mostly understandable, but still) and VR never reaching a sustainable point. None of the hype matches the finished results, and while some still get caught up in the nonsense, most have become so jaded at the constant promises of the best thing ever that it's just meaningless.
The final nail is all the largest publishers conglomerating to survive the coming winter, and others pretty much abandoning it completely. They've known it's coming for years with down trending sales and a lack of movement overall in ideas and creativity. They're out of gimmicks to pile everything they've got onto. Well almost, Nintendo has distanced itself from the rest of the industry and will likely survive regardless of what happens to the rest.
There isn't a lot else to say, the industry has been wrung dry by greed for a second time and once again has rightly been greeted with apathy and disinterest by us lot.
Roll on Winter.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2022 18:48:41 GMT
I would disagree and say we are in a golden age. We have got past horse armour, project 10 dollars and micro transactions in games to Sony and Nintendo at least going back to single player complete games.
And gamepass has taken up the indie darling support.
I just don't see the same pessimism you do.
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cubby
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Post by cubby on Jun 19, 2022 18:55:18 GMT
I don't think crashes will happen the same way as they have in the past.
Crashes tend to be based on speculation being a hell of a lot higher than reality pans out, and I think video game companies are extremely risk averse now. Even if there seems to be burn out on the formulaic dross getting pumped out I'm not seeing companies getting burned financially even when they put out bad products.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2022 18:57:28 GMT
I would disagree and say we are in a golden age. We have got past horse armour, project 10 dollars and micro transactions in games to Sony and Nintendo at least going back to single player complete games. And gamepass has taken up the indie darling support. I just don't see the same pessimism you do. I'm in the same boat, loving games as much as I ever have and seen real quality so far this gen. Once they stop making games for the last gen consoles I think we'll get some special games.
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Post by dfunked on Jun 19, 2022 18:57:32 GMT
It feels like a while since we've had a year of games where I struggled to pick a GotY, so kind of agree with this.
TMNT was the first game in ages that got a "that was fucking excellent!" kind of response out of me, so the magic is still there I guess.
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Post by Sarfrin on Jun 19, 2022 19:23:50 GMT
Eh? Weren't the latest consoles selling out almost as soon as they become available for months?
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deebs
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Post by deebs on Jun 19, 2022 19:29:37 GMT
Eh? Weren't the latest consoles selling out almost as soon as they become available for months? Out of touch? There are too few to meet any demand, due to the chip shortage. And scalping has been fucking rampant.
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Post by technoish on Jun 19, 2022 19:32:15 GMT
I've just got older. There are so many awesome games I don't have time to play.
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deebs
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Post by deebs on Jun 19, 2022 19:33:09 GMT
I don't think crashes will happen the same way as they have in the past. Crashes tend to be based on speculation being a hell of a lot higher than reality pans out, and I think video game companies are extremely risk averse now. Even if there seems to be burn out on the formulaic dross getting pumped out I'm not seeing companies getting burned financially even when they put out bad products. EA reported a $186 million loss for a quarter after Battlefront 2 bombed.
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deebs
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Post by deebs on Jun 19, 2022 19:37:37 GMT
I think some of you are missing the point. It's not that good games suddenly don't exist, it's that the industry is struggling under it's own weight, and the $100 million development of cash cows aren't selling anymore. Hell, VR alone was a multi-billion R&D cost industry-wide and it's practically dead now.
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Post by dominalien on Jun 19, 2022 19:38:19 GMT
I'll try to take this seriously.
No new ideas or creativity don't matter. There are always good new consumers growing up who haven't seen the old stuff and they're all happy to lap it all up. Plus, there are so many types of different gaming industries now (mobile!) with completely different people buying into them, it'll all just flow and ebb for the foreseeable future. We've been through online passes, day-1 patches (still going strong), microtransactions, season passes, it all comes and goes like fashion trends and everything remains roughly the same. We'll move onto subs, they'll work or they won't, most likely they'll work somewhat for some people and won't for others.
If one of the multitude of these gaming industries somehow dies, the others will go on, something new will come along to fill the gap, then something else will die, repeat ad infinitum.
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deebs
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Post by deebs on Jun 19, 2022 19:51:15 GMT
No new ideas were the cause of the first crash.
People are not happy to "lap it up" anymore. Take a look at concurrent players for the latest Call of Duty for example. It's dead. Same goes for most of EA's recent games.
The rest is just a crutch, none of it will gain traction.
If it's the death of anything, it's shareholders and boardrooms. Gaming will continue, and the cycle will repeat, but it'll be a different landscape for a while.
It's telling that one of the few games that got any recognition or interest in the recent E3 thread was from Devolver Digital. Most everything else was met with blank apathy.
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Frog
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Post by Frog on Jun 19, 2022 20:01:26 GMT
EA didn't make a loss in any quarter of '21 and they had a record year even with battlefield bombing.
Net bookings for fiscal 2021 was $6.190 billion, up 15% year-over-year, and over $600 million above original expectations.
Call of duty will be smashing it again this year as it's back to modern warfare again, warzone 2 will bring back players as well although not to the extent that the first did during lockdown as it was the perfect timesink at the perfect time. Even now warzone makes them a shitload of cash.
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Post by Danno on Jun 19, 2022 20:06:31 GMT
"OH NO EA AND COD ARE GONNA DIE" isn't exactly breaking my heart
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deebs
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So I was killing this pig with a hammer
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Post by deebs on Jun 19, 2022 20:08:11 GMT
And yet they're actively shopping themselves, courting Amazon and others to buy them lock stock.
I didn't say they aren't successful overall, and they're clearly not stupid.
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Post by Aunt Alison on Jun 19, 2022 20:08:58 GMT
Better get playing some games before they're all gone
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deez
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Post by deez on Jun 19, 2022 20:13:37 GMT
Nintendo will save the day, again.
When game pass Vs PS implode.
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Lukus
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Post by Lukus on Jun 19, 2022 20:20:08 GMT
No new ideas were the cause of the first crash. People are not happy to "lap it up" anymore. Take a look at concurrent players for the latest Call of Duty for example. It's dead. Same goes for most of EA's recent games. Isn't that more about what's trendy than anything else though? After about a million CoD sequels it's just not the super hot online game of choice anymore. All the cool kids are playing ____* *I don't fucking know
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Post by Jambowayoh on Jun 19, 2022 20:20:21 GMT
No new ideas were the cause of the first crash. People are not happy to "lap it up" anymore. Take a look at concurrent players for the latest Call of Duty for example. It's dead. Same goes for most of EA's recent games. The rest is just a crutch, none of it will gain traction. If it's the death of anything, it's shareholders and boardrooms. Gaming will continue, and the cycle will repeat, but it'll be a different landscape for a while. It's telling that one of the few games that got any recognition or interest in the recent E3 thread was from Devolver Digital. Most everything else was met with blank apathy. No, the first crash happend due to many factors, the large amount of gaming vendors which massively fragmented the consumer base, the massive amount of poor quality control leading to a ton of shovelware and many people losing interest in a format that was relatively young. Also you can't really use this forum as a baseline of consumer interest when you factor in our age and how we really don't represent the current gamer profile. Just because you thought everything was boring doesn't mean that a ton of people were massively interested in what was shown. I know you love your hot takes but this is definitely a good one.
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Post by Jambowayoh on Jun 19, 2022 20:22:35 GMT
Anyway who thinks the Ouya is going to overtake the big three console manufacturers? I hear it's got a fan so you can really crank up the graphics.
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Post by damagedinc on Jun 19, 2022 20:24:34 GMT
Playstation can't provide consoles to match the requirement
Nintendo can sell disgusting amount of switches, even with a 99.9% technical fail rate on the drift issue (stats not factual)
People mopping up remasters and remakes
Game pass model taking off
People spending a billion pounds on live service games
Think they're doing ok
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Post by Reviewer on Jun 19, 2022 20:25:24 GMT
There are loads of mid tier games that are good, like Sniper Elite 5, there are several high profile games that have met their promises - Elden Ring, Forza & Gran Turismo, Horizon Forbidden West, Total War: Warhammer 3, Lego Star Wars. There are loads of highly rated indie games that have been released in the last 6 months.
There’s no crash, just games you’re not interested in. There’s certainly a shortage of good single player FPS games.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2022 20:35:46 GMT
And I don't agree that the demographic on the forum isn't the target market. They're making games that are like binge worthy boxsets and 30 plus usually have more money to burn.
Loads of games aimed at 30+.
The cashcows are usually aimed at the kids but there's been an increase in single player games that are aimed at older players.
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Post by Aunt Alison on Jun 19, 2022 20:38:30 GMT
And I don't agree that the demographic on the forum isn't the target market. They're making games that are like binge worthy boxsets and 30 plus usually have more money to burn. Loads of games aimed at 30+. The cashcows are usually aimed at the kids but there's been an increase in single player games that are aimed at older players. I think moreso he means most mainstream releases are aimed at less discerning demographics
They see adverts for a new Assassin's Creed, slip into their Assassin's Creed tracky and pop in to Game to pick it up
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Post by Jambowayoh on Jun 19, 2022 20:39:47 GMT
And I don't agree that the demographic on the forum isn't the target market. They're making games that are like binge worthy boxsets and 30 plus usually have more money to burn. Loads of games aimed at 30+. The cashcows are usually aimed at the kids but there's been an increase in single player games that are aimed at older players. Perhaps but the busywork of most open world games is aimed at people with the level of freetime that a majority of this forum doesn't have.
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Post by 😎 on Jun 19, 2022 20:40:01 GMT
I’m having a great old time with games myself. Good range of AAA stuff and lower indie games, and plenty upcoming I’m looking forward to. And even if there wasn’t there’s so much in my backlog I don’t think I’d give a shit.
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Post by Jambowayoh on Jun 19, 2022 20:40:35 GMT
And I don't agree that the demographic on the forum isn't the target market. They're making games that are like binge worthy boxsets and 30 plus usually have more money to burn. Loads of games aimed at 30+. The cashcows are usually aimed at the kids but there's been an increase in single player games that are aimed at older players. I think moreso he means most mainstream releases are aimed at less discerning demographics
They see adverts for a new Assassin's Creed, slip into their Assassin's Creed tracky and pop in to Game to pick it up
Yeah this is what I was getting at.
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deebs
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Post by deebs on Jun 19, 2022 20:48:26 GMT
the first crash happend due to many factors, the large amount of gaming vendors which massively fragmented the consumer base, the massive amount of poor quality control leading to a ton of shovelware and many people losing interest in a format Struggling to see any difference with what's happening now. Not to mention the massive recession we're heading into.
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Post by Jambowayoh on Jun 19, 2022 20:51:01 GMT
Well I guess there's the absolutely MASSIVE install base of gamers that exist among consoles, Pc and mobile. You know, that little difference. If we're using recession as reason then what about the one in 2008? Did that cause a gaming crash because I remember around that same time like 2010, people were also saying console gaming was going to die because of mobile. And well we saw what happened there.
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Post by muddyfunster on Jun 19, 2022 21:01:00 GMT
I've barely used my PS5 in a year now and I think it's because there's a sense that there's nothing available that I haven't played before. Everything feels like a reskin of something else. I just can't be bothered with third person action games anymore. There have been very few blockbuster games released lately and even fewer that have delivered.
I've tried a lot of games on PC and PS5 in that period and very few have held interest for more than a few hours. Subnautica below zero is the only one I've completed and even that was good but not as interesting as the first one.
I can't see myself buying another game until Starfield and Monkey Island are released.
Not sure if it's me getting old or game design getting stale or both. Very little impresses me any more. I'm just increasingly finding that I'd rather do other things with my limited free time.
If it wasn't for iracing, my PC's graphics card wouldn't been out of idle state since Christmas.
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