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Post by khanivor on Feb 10, 2022 17:25:02 GMT
Little odd how the five year average is not consistent across the span of the two years in the graph
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richardiox
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Post by richardiox on Feb 10, 2022 17:41:17 GMT
Part of the problem is that the 5 year average now also includes the 150k excess pandemonium deaths from 2020 and 2021 which distorts it somewhat.
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EMarkM
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Post by EMarkM on Feb 10, 2022 18:52:15 GMT
Part of the problem is that the 5 year average now also includes the 150k excess pandemonium deaths from 2020 and 2021 which distorts it somewhat. Quoted for posterity.
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richardiox
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Post by richardiox on Feb 10, 2022 19:31:06 GMT
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111
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Post by 111 on Feb 10, 2022 19:32:03 GMT
Little odd how the five year average is not consistent across the span of the two years in the graph Not consistent in what sense? If follows the same pattern (rise for the winter, mini drops at each bank holiday) in the first year as it does in the second. Part of the problem is that the 5 year average now also includes the 150k excess pandemonium deaths from 2020 and 2021 which distorts it somewhat. No it doesn't blog.ons.gov.uk/2022/01/12/understanding-excess-deaths-during-a-pandemic/
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richardiox
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Post by richardiox on Feb 10, 2022 20:21:04 GMT
Good old ONS, they think of literally everything.
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Post by khanivor on Feb 10, 2022 21:38:20 GMT
The line isn’t identical. Shouldn’t it be identical across the two years?
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larrybong
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Post by larrybong on Feb 10, 2022 21:55:11 GMT
The difference is explained in the link that 111 posted. They use a rolling 5 year average but had to exclude 2020 due to the high numbers of covid deaths skewing the average.
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111
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Post by 111 on Feb 10, 2022 22:12:37 GMT
Yeah it's a rolling five-year average, so which years go into is different in 2021 (2015, 16, 17, 18 and 19) vs 2022 (2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021). The differences are not significant, but that's why the line across 2021 and the line across 2022 are not perfectly identical.
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Post by khanivor on Feb 10, 2022 22:46:12 GMT
“ Usually we use the most recent five years, for example we compared deaths in 2020 with the five-year average for 2015 to 2019.
When looking at deaths in 2021 we used the five-year average for 2015 to 2019 again”
The only variation should be seen between the months of January 2022 and 2021
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111
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Post by 111 on Feb 10, 2022 23:58:06 GMT
The only variation should be seen between the months of January 2022 and 2021 Well that's the only place I can see any difference personally, so seems to check out to me. If there is some minute difference somewhere else, though, does it really matter? I mean it's the ONS - I'm happy to just take it on trust that the numbers are sound. If there are some minor statical anomalies that would require burrowing deeper into their technical documentation to understand, they don't remotely affect the point of the chart.
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Post by eleven63 on Feb 11, 2022 20:13:26 GMT
Day 5 of other half testing positive, and day 5 of me not.
Our friends, a couple of doors down/up(?) from us in exactly the same situation, partner and daughter both have covid, he's clear. Odd.
Anyway, Friday night beers 🍻
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Frog
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Post by Frog on Feb 11, 2022 20:17:33 GMT
Wife didn't test positive until a week after me, son tested positive 2 weeks after her.
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RobEG
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Post by RobEG on Feb 11, 2022 21:49:57 GMT
I’m still testing positive on day 11 post pcr (12 post symptoms). Which is annoying. I’m still getting a couple of waves of coughing fits and some tiredness. I’ve generally been fine through it, just can’t shake the last little bit.
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RobEG
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Post by RobEG on Feb 11, 2022 21:51:21 GMT
Day 5 of other half testing positive, and day 5 of me not. Our friends, a couple of doors down/up(?) from us in exactly the same situation, partner and daughter both have covid, he's clear. Odd. Anyway, Friday night beers 🍻 I was testing negative on the old nose and throat ones most of the way through. Only the nose only ones seemed to pick mine up.
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Lizard
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Post by Lizard on Feb 11, 2022 22:13:12 GMT
The protest in the parliament grounds is still going, despite torrential rain. In fact more people have turned up now it's the weekend. The streets all around parliament (and my office, it's all going on literally two minutes from my desk) are blocked with their cars, campervans, caravans, trucks etc. An insane mix of hippies, sovereign citizens, religious nutters, QAnon types, hardcore anti-Crown Māori activists. The police arrested a load of them on Wednesday, but they're taking a softly-softly approach, despite many of the protestors being far from peaceful. The police say they're taking this response approach partly because their are many children amongst the protestors. The protestors are encouraging people to bring their children, sometimes taking them to the frontlines of the protest. They're trying to get the vehicles removed, but apparently towing companies have been threatened and are reluctant to do it. www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/461363/covid-19-omicron-outbreak-anti-mandate-protest-s-fifth-day-at-parliamentWhat a shitshow.
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Post by Dougs on Feb 11, 2022 23:02:30 GMT
I’m still testing positive on day 11 post pcr (12 post symptoms). Which is annoying. I’m still getting a couple of waves of coughing fits and some tiredness. I’ve generally been fine through it, just can’t shake the last little bit. Pretty sure you're free after 10 days regardless, unless you have a temperature. Some people test positive for yonks after but doesn't mean you're infectious.
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RobEG
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Post by RobEG on Feb 12, 2022 7:54:24 GMT
Yeah I’m free but just being cautious. It’s not so much the testing positive but the cough / cold I can’t shake that’s annoying me.
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Post by elstoof on Feb 12, 2022 8:36:45 GMT
This booster requirement for entry to Europe caught me by surprise, 9 months after your second dose you’re not longer considered vaccinated
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Post by Dougs on Feb 12, 2022 10:44:41 GMT
Interesting. It's all very well this Govt doing one thing, but when other countries are going another way, it creates a(nother) conflict.
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Post by elstoof on Feb 12, 2022 11:30:46 GMT
I didn’t see it reported anywhere, the rules came in a couple of weeks ago. I’m off to France next week to see the in laws and double checked the requirements this morning otherwise I’d have never known. I’ve not had my booster yet since I had rona over Xmas, but I just squeak under the 9 month cut off. I’m not sure how I feel about the changing of what constitutes a full vaccination, I’ve had my two jabs and don’t particularly want to have to get a booster every 9 months in order to travel
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sport✅
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Post by sport✅ on Feb 12, 2022 12:17:13 GMT
Mon dieu, are you sure they're ok letting in an anti-vax son-in-law into their home?!
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Post by Psychotext on Feb 14, 2022 0:07:57 GMT
Missus has it again (triple vaxxed). Third fucking time.
Ruined three planned trips this week. Fucksake.
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Post by tonyferrino on Feb 14, 2022 7:19:39 GMT
Re the booster requirements for Europe,that did seem to sneak in under the radar. We are going away in May, all things well, but as I had my booster in October I had to do some quick maths to make sure I was going to be ok. Hopefully things will change again in the summer, otherwise where can we just ask for another booster?
My wife had her booster at a different location to me, and found out that it hadn't been registered on her NHS record. All sorted now, but worth checking if you haven't already.
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スコットランド
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Post by スコットランド on Feb 14, 2022 7:22:22 GMT
I didn’t see it reported anywhere, the rules came in a couple of weeks ago. I’m off to France next week to see the in laws and double checked the requirements this morning otherwise I’d have never known. I’ve not had my booster yet since I had rona over Xmas, but I just squeak under the 9 month cut off. I’m not sure how I feel about the changing of what constitutes a full vaccination, I’ve had my two jabs and don’t particularly want to have to get a booster every 9 months in order to travel Amazing that rules change to reflect the current rather than historical status of a constantly evolving virus.
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Post by dfunked on Feb 14, 2022 7:44:02 GMT
Didn't the other countries get the memo? Boris beat this thing and got the country moving again!
It's that bloody Brussels interfering again, innit.
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Post by elstoof on Feb 14, 2022 7:44:42 GMT
And how does a booster requirement affect that current status
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スコットランド
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Post by スコットランド on Feb 14, 2022 7:48:31 GMT
And how does a booster requirement affect that current status Sufficient protection against the virus requires on adequate vaccination which can vary depending on the dominant variant, the differences between boosted and 2xjabbed for Omicron is huge. Do you think if a cuntier variant appears next Autumn we should not bother with booster or newer more effective vaccine because Elstoof though double jabbed mean Covid protected for ever, no matter how the virus evolves?
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Post by elstoof on Feb 14, 2022 8:03:35 GMT
itll provide protection sure, for the recipient. Doesn’t seem to stop you spreading, hence the requirement to provide negative tests no matter what your vaccination status. So the same question remains, how does a booster requirement affect the current status. There’s a reason why it’s called a “booster” rather than “third dose”
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geefe
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Post by geefe on Feb 14, 2022 8:10:32 GMT
For the first time in 2 years yesterday I went out and completely forgot to take a mask. Train, shop and pub with nothing. Though tbf the train was quiet and I wouldn't have worn one in the pub anyway.
It does feel like we've entered the "what more can we do?" phase. If even I'm forgetting to take one with me, and I've got a pile of them (cloth, admittedly) by the front door - I can imagine most are forgetting at some point as well.
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