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Post by Honk If You're Horny? on Jun 12, 2023 16:47:01 GMT
Chernobyl is somewhat of a tourist attraction these days.
I've been and give it three thumbs up.
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Post by Honk If You're Horny? on Jun 12, 2023 16:47:38 GMT
Oh hi new page.
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technoish
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Post by technoish on Jun 12, 2023 16:54:34 GMT
On russian invasion, unlike Russia that focused resources in trying to take Bakhmut, and barely managed that, while losing huge numbers of soldiers, Ukraine is doing a broad attack across a wide range of the front line, and has made more progress in a week.
They've got dozens of further brigades they haven't deployed, one reason being they can't concentrate too many of these in one place as they become vulnerable to a tactical nuke...
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Post by Bill in the rain on Jun 13, 2023 1:26:33 GMT
All this focus on Ukraine's Counter-Offensive seems weird. Like it's going to be some sudden swift move that will inevitably sweep the russians into the sea. It feels very telegraphed and over-hyped. Which is a weird thing to say about a war. I guess it's a flip-side of the way this war has been fought in the public eye and media.
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Lizard
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Post by Lizard on Jun 13, 2023 1:44:57 GMT
Chernobyl is somewhat of a tourist attraction these days. I've been and give it three thumbs up. Freddie rates the cuisine
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Post by lukasz on Jun 13, 2023 8:38:57 GMT
All this focus on Ukraine's Counter-Offensive seems weird. Like it's going to be some sudden swift move that will inevitably sweep the russians into the sea. It feels very telegraphed and over-hyped. Which is a weird thing to say about a war. I guess it's a flip-side of the way this war has been fought in the public eye and media. Its one time thing. Ukraine needs to make sizeable gains in order for continuous support by the west. If the offensive does not sucessdully show some potential for kicking russians out then there will be serious talk on forcing ukraine to surrender to russia. And there wont be second one full scale. Neither side has equipment or personnel for big war anymore. If it does something big like cut the land bridge in half ukraine will receive support to keep kicking russians out If it fizzles it might be the death of the nation.
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geefe
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Post by geefe on Jun 13, 2023 11:11:50 GMT
About the size of it. We're now into "ongoing conflict" territory, I think. There are those in the West who WILL grow tired of it and will look for an excuse just to end it.
Ukraine needs to demonstrate that Russia is a big nasty, undemocratic Communist red bully, which can be defeated. But they need help to do it. Not too much help but enough.
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Post by skalpadda on Jun 13, 2023 12:36:13 GMT
If it fizzles it might be the death of the nation. Seems extremely unlikely at this point, unless something very dramatic happens. Russia hasn't shown any ability to accomplish anything substantial for over a year and even if a big supporter like the US dropped out there would be enough support to stop the country from just collapsing or being overrun. The current Eastern European supporters, the Baltics and the Nordics won't stop supporting Ukraine no matter what. It's in our national interests irregardless of what the rest of the West thinks. Poland would probably enter the war unilaterally if it looked like they'd end up with a border to Russia or another vassal state like Belarus.
What's at stake is whether they'll have the resources to make any more big pushes. Worst case scenario is an indefinitely frozen conflict or some kind of finlandisation (and the latter might still be better for Ukraine in the long run than their situation before 2014).
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Post by Bill in the rain on Jun 13, 2023 12:59:23 GMT
The odds of Ukraine breaking through seem pretty low though, given that Russia has known they're coming for months and had a very long time to fortify. Even if they had air cover.
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technoish
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Post by technoish on Jun 13, 2023 13:38:17 GMT
Even for a country like US, cynically this is basically a pretty cheap way to get Ukrainians to destroy an old world super power. They just need to stump up a bit of budget.
All the weapons manufacturers get to test out their latest weapons in combat also.
There is also a huge amount of learning going on with regards to what modern warfare is. Hugely expensive F35s, vs a 1 million drone swarm...
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technoish
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Post by technoish on Jun 13, 2023 13:48:11 GMT
The odds of Ukraine breaking through seem pretty low though, given that Russia has known they're coming for months and had a very long time to fortify. Even if they had air cover. Russian fortifications are rubbish - they don't have the supply chains to build them, or the people to man a huge long front line. That's why you've seen these incursions into Russia - it's forces Russia to disperse their soldiers even wider. They rely on manpower instead of modern logistics (things as basic as using crates and fork lifts...), and they don't have prefab concrete. And they can't keep supplies and ammunition anywhere near the front line because of the constant threat of drone assisted artillery. Russia has had to can the entire production line of the past year of one its artillery shell factories as they had a habit of self detonating... They have to manually put in what would have been previously been western batteries into land mines, but are not available due to sanctions, and the cheap knock of Chinese versions barely work. The list goes on. Ukraine has also been hitting deep into russian railway supply chains, the main method for resupply. Russian army is having to shoot its own soldiers to stop retreat and sends people in crutches back to front line to stop them deserting. Due to sanctions Russia doesn't have access to proper night vis tech, so Ukrainian army can steamroll them at night, using western tech.
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technoish
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Post by technoish on Jun 20, 2023 15:59:31 GMT
Terrifying
Way more so than Trump with nuclear codes.
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Post by JuniorFE on Jun 20, 2023 21:12:52 GMT
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Post by minimatt on Jun 23, 2023 19:43:26 GMT
something going on with Wagner seemingly half declaring war in the Russian mod (but not Putin) and accusing russian mod of rocket strikes against its bases. as with everything no fucking idea what's going on and how it'll pan out but can't help thinking the world will be a better place if Wagner & russian leadership up to including Putin shell eachother into oblivion edit: fsb opening criminal case for insurrection against Prigozhin? Sure, ideally he'd spend the rest of his life at the Hague answering war crimes charges but I don't think many will lose sleep when he accidentally falls out a window over the weekend
edit 2:
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technoish
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Post by technoish on Jun 23, 2023 20:28:25 GMT
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Post by Danno on Jun 23, 2023 20:30:28 GMT
Seemed like the only outcome once the Chef started openly criticising the military, it was just a matter of when, and who, would be offed first
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technoish
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Post by technoish on Jun 23, 2023 20:34:18 GMT
He's also this week been very openly criticising the behaviour of russian government in occupied regions, saying they've basically killed all the army army age men, turned the cities to rubble, and removed all of the resources. Which is not what you do if you are there to liberate. He is like the only "senior" russian official (although he is obviously not actually) that seems to be getting real intel. Putin really isn't being fed the truth at all.
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Whizzo
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Post by Whizzo on Jun 23, 2023 21:53:41 GMT
Spicy!
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richardiox
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Post by richardiox on Jun 23, 2023 22:00:27 GMT
Imagine being a RUS soldier dug in somewhere in a Ukrainian field and getting word that this is all going on.
What are the ramifications for the war in Ukraine if there's an active Coup in Russia. How can the RUmod hold a chain of command even? Is it unprecedented to have a coup attempt during wartime?
Absolutely glorious that most the apparatus the state would usually have to defend itself against a coup attempt is rusting/rotting in Ukraine somewhere.
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Post by skalpadda on Jun 23, 2023 22:00:39 GMT
Heightened readiness (reports of military visible) in several Russian cities and Telegram buzz about Wagner and the Russian army shooting at each other around Bakhmut in Ukraine. All the pinches of salt in the world, obviously, but it will be interesting to see where this is going. As far as I know Wagner doesn't have a lot of the kind of hardware it would need to fight any kind of organised force on its own, so calling for some sort of insurrection seems utterly mad. And while they have a lot of soldiers, it's not a lot compared to the army, and I can't imagine mercenaries and press-ganged convicts are going to be the most loyal people. Maybe Prigozhin found out he's being ousted and made a mad scramble to try and pre-empt it or something. Who the fuck knows though.
edit:
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Post by Bill in the rain on Jun 24, 2023 3:37:34 GMT
If I was on Twitter I'd definitely post one of those Eating Popcorn gifs about now.
The chef guy has to know that he's all-in now. Be interesting to see how much loyalty he has from his troops.
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Post by brainbird on Jun 24, 2023 5:53:12 GMT
We are now in every 90s hollywood action film scenario territory. I hear Tom Clancy just ejaculated.
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Post by brainbird on Jun 24, 2023 5:54:07 GMT
Or maybe not. He's been dead for ten years apparently.
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mcmonkeyplc
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Post by mcmonkeyplc on Jun 24, 2023 6:42:41 GMT
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Frog
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Post by Frog on Jun 24, 2023 7:18:23 GMT
Certainly a distraction the Russian army could do without, 25000 fighters suddenly turning. That's without their own forces they will have to redirect to deal with it. Add the Ukrainian counter attack into it and they are in a bit of a pickle.
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Post by Honk If You're Horny? on Jun 24, 2023 7:49:43 GMT
If Twitter is to be believed they are in Voronezh en-route to Moscow and have not encountered any resistance.
No way of verifying that info but if they do get to roll all the way into Moscow unhindered it doesn't look great for P. Dawg.
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Bongo Heracles
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Post by Bongo Heracles on Jun 24, 2023 7:56:31 GMT
If you fought them, your reward for surviving would be being sent to Ukraine. Probably not the greatest motivator.
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Frog
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Post by Frog on Jun 24, 2023 7:57:17 GMT
BBC reporting they are being pretty much allowed free passage.
Going to be an important day for sure.
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richardiox
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Post by richardiox on Jun 24, 2023 8:03:16 GMT
I think very few of the Russian forces will open fire on a concentration of Wagner troops and as such within as few days, they'll be in control of the entire MOD and the Coup will then be a full military coup and Putin will have to flee Russia (if he hasn't already).
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Post by dfunked on Jun 24, 2023 8:04:12 GMT
Wishful thinking, but I like the sound of it!
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