otto
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Post by otto on Nov 5, 2024 14:18:24 GMT
On a side note, we may have talked about this before and I just forgot, but has there been any analysis on why polls have become so unreliable in recent years? The US polling industry is fucked up (hey what's new), it's unregulated, and what happens is that unreliable pollsters with an agenda swamp the channel. What seems to have happened is that Republican-leaning or sympathetic pollsters have been absolutely spamming the market with polls favouring Trump, skewing the entire picture. We can guess why this might be. (Incidentally, although they're not regulated, they are rated, so you can see if any given poll comes from a highly rated pollster or not.) and by the way this also accounts for the betting odds (normally you would think they would be a good predictor, as the betting industry wants to make money, but this time you've seen some politically-motivated whales placing enormous bets precisely in order to create a picture that favours Trump - again, we can guess why this might be). |
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malek86
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Post by malek86 on Nov 5, 2024 14:18:28 GMT
On a side note, we may have talked about this before and I just forgot, but has there been any analysis on why polls have become so unreliable in recent years? The US polling industry is fucked up (hey what's new), it's unregulated, and what happens is that unreliable pollsters with an agenda swamp the channel. What seems to have happened is that Republican-leaning or sympathetic pollsters have been absolutely spamming the market with polls favouring Trump, skewing the entire picture. We can guess why this might be. (Incidentally, although they're not regulated, they are rated, so you can see if any given poll comes from a highly rated pollster or not.) Wouldn't that work against them? If I saw a poll showing that my favorite candidate is likely to win regardless of my vote, I might not find it as urgent to go outside. |
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otto
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Post by otto on Nov 5, 2024 14:20:17 GMT
It depends on what they're trying to achieve. If they're trying to get their candidate elected, maybe. If they're trying to establish a narrative of a stolen election, maybe not.
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Post by Jambowayoh on Nov 5, 2024 14:20:34 GMT
But on the other hand it might make you not want to vote as many people can be quite apathetic and be of the idea that their vote won't matter as you falsely believe the other candidate is going to win whatever you do.
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X201
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Post by X201 on Nov 5, 2024 14:29:44 GMT
On a side note, we may have talked about this before and I just forgot, but has there been any analysis on why polls have become so unreliable in recent years? The US polling industry is fucked up (hey what's new), it's unregulated, and what happens is that unreliable pollsters with an agenda swamp the channel. What seems to have happened is that Republican-leaning or sympathetic pollsters have been absolutely spamming the market with polls favouring Trump, skewing the entire picture. We can guess why this might be. (Incidentally, although they're not regulated, they are rated, so you can see if any given poll comes from a highly rated pollster or not.) They were taking about it on either Americast or Newscast (can't remember which) There's also a lot of polling companies that don't want to stick their neck out, so they tweak their polls so they are inline with other polls, which is obviously at risk of things adding up in the wrong direction. |
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Post by JuniorFE on Nov 5, 2024 14:29:54 GMT
Also most polls struck out on Trump both times (in 2016 Hillary was obviously going to win... until she didn't, and in 2020 Biden was supposed to win much more comfortably than he eventually did), so now they're overcorrecting.
And their methods are increasingly becoming outdated with not enough effort to change that, so even when they're not intentionally favouring one of the candidates their data is skewed and has to be supplemented with legacy trends.
But yeah partisan polls and the need to make it look close (for ratings or otherwise) play a big part as well.
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Post by drakeypoos on Nov 5, 2024 15:09:50 GMT
I hope to god all you more informed fuckers are right 😂
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otto
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Post by otto on Nov 5, 2024 15:12:16 GMT
I've been pretty confident for a couple of weeks now that she's going to win and it won't even be close.
I mean of course I could be wrong.
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Post by Jambowayoh on Nov 5, 2024 15:14:58 GMT
Fucking hell, Otto.
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Post by 😎 on Nov 5, 2024 15:16:22 GMT
Same. The real world enthusiasm for Trump just doesn’t exist anymore.
Gonna say it again - our fairly right wing subdivision (if our HOA group is anything to go by) has more Harris/Walz signs than Trump. 2020 you could barely move for Trump flags and signs. I’m legitimately expecting a massive blue wave, with possibly some surprises. Texas is in play.
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Post by zisssou on Nov 5, 2024 15:18:03 GMT
Not sure about that. Trump has now got the incels. He moved on from the elderly to the kids. Hence why he's popped up on incel podcasts.
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Post by JuniorFE on Nov 5, 2024 15:20:46 GMT
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rftp
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Post by rftp on Nov 5, 2024 15:29:55 GMT
Not sure about that. Trump has now got the incels. He moved on from the elderly to the kids. Hence why he's popped up on incel podcasts. He's always had them, they're literally the core of the base. They won't be what swings the voting, though. |
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pizzacrunch
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Post by pizzacrunch on Nov 5, 2024 15:30:19 GMT
Same. The real world enthusiasm for Trump just doesn’t exist anymore. Gonna say it again - our fairly right wing subdivision (if our HOA group is anything to go by) has more Harris/Walz signs than Trump. 2020 you could barely move for Trump flags and signs. I’m legitimately expecting a massive blue wave, with possibly some surprises. Texas is in play. Trump and his fans really do look tired and going through the motions now. I do wonder how many will be glad it's finally over. |
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Post by zisssou on Nov 5, 2024 15:34:01 GMT
Not sure about that. Trump has now got the incels. He moved on from the elderly to the kids. Hence why he's popped up on incel podcasts. He's always had them, they're literally the core of the base. They won't be what swings the voting, though. Of course, but I've definitely seen a lot more exposure this election over the 2016. |
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Post by britesparc on Nov 5, 2024 15:42:30 GMT
Vance has strong incel energy.
Last time I guess Trump* figured he needed propping up from the Christian right, so he picked Creepy Pastor Mike Pence. Now they know that those guys don't actually give a shit how devout you are as long as you hurt the right people, he's gone for the neckbeard demographic.
*I mean, it's not really Trump making these decisions is it?
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Post by Vandelay on Nov 5, 2024 16:01:06 GMT
He's always had them, they're literally the core of the base. They won't be what swings the voting, though. Of course, but I've definitely seen a lot more exposure this election over the 2016. The slight worry is that this group is being underrepresented in the polling, as they are likely also a group that don't normally vote. Fortunately, young progressive types will also probably be underrepresented and (hopefully) outnumber the incel lot. I'm reasonably confident things will go ok. I'm not quite expecting a blue wave, but there is cautious optimism that it will be alright (at least the result - US will still be far from an ideal place). |
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Post by simple on Nov 5, 2024 16:05:57 GMT
The rough rule of thumb is that there is no such thing as a silent majority because when pushed non-voters will ultimate split along the same lines as voters do - which is why get out the vote campaigns matter more than trying to change anybody’s mind in a race like this.
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Post by Duffking on Nov 5, 2024 16:17:04 GMT
I feel like it has to be close because of the nature of swing states deciding the election, so unless there's state's that are going to be in swing range that weren't expected to be then it just has to be close. It's decided by like 7 states or something.
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Post by peekconfusion on Nov 5, 2024 16:27:19 GMT
What are the odds on a Harris win followed by a Trump pardon?
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pizzacrunch
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Post by pizzacrunch on Nov 5, 2024 16:29:30 GMT
What are the odds on a Harris win followed by a Trump pardon? Wouldn't that just set a precedent that any future racists will be let off in exchange for not having to deal with violence. |
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mcmonkeyplc
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Post by mcmonkeyplc on Nov 5, 2024 16:34:31 GMT
I feel like it has to be close because of the nature of swing states deciding the election, so unless there's state's that are going to be in swing range that weren't expected to be then it just has to be close. It's decided by like 7 states or something.  |
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Post by grey_matters on Nov 5, 2024 16:50:42 GMT
Paddy Powers odds of "Donald Trump to Win Popular Vote & to Win the US Election" have moved from 11/4 to 4/1. Harris to get 54%+ at 9/1 is the only temptation. I don't think there's enough money in the world to be happy with a Trump win so a happiness:money hedge bet is right out.
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Garfy
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Post by Garfy on Nov 5, 2024 16:52:07 GMT
Putting my money where my mouth is. 100 quid on Harris. Not usually a gambler but fuck it if the world is ending i won't need money anyhow
Was rather disappointed to see they have the pumpkin as favourite
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Post by peekconfusion on Nov 5, 2024 17:01:47 GMT
What are the odds on a Harris win followed by a Trump pardon? Wouldn't that just set a precedent that any future racists will be let off in exchange for not having to deal with violence. Yes, yes it would. |
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zephro
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Post by zephro on Nov 5, 2024 17:08:22 GMT
Were going to the pub to pretend it's not happening.
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Post by Jambowayoh on Nov 5, 2024 17:12:36 GMT
Were going to the pub to pretend it's not happening. That's a good plan. I've decided to go to the cinema and watch Heretic and completely ignore the news and here until tomorrow morning for the inevitable. |
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Post by Whizzo on Nov 5, 2024 17:15:48 GMT
What are the odds on a Harris win followed by a Trump pardon? The crimes that Trump has been convicted on, so far, aren't pardonable by the President. Not that there would be much incentive for President Harris to do it anyway. |
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pizzacrunch
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Post by pizzacrunch on Nov 5, 2024 17:16:22 GMT
Wouldn't that just set a precedent that any future racists will be let off in exchange for not having to deal with violence. Yes, yes it would. Just seen trump giving an interview after voting and he was giving off real "Marges painting of Mr burns" vibes. I think he's already started that sympathy tour to avoid prison. |
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Post by peekconfusion on Nov 5, 2024 17:27:39 GMT
What are the odds on a Harris win followed by a Trump pardon? The crimes that Trump has been convicted on, so far, aren't pardonable by the President. Not that there would be much incentive for President Harris to do it anyway. I would argue that the federal cases are the strongest and the obvious gameplan would be to introduce enough ambiguity into the others to get all but the most trivial charges dismissed. I also wonder whether a presidential pardon comes with the implicit pressure to drop the other cases as well. |
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