Tom Clancy’s US Politics Thread

The polls have been fucked for ages. Aggregate models like Silvers rely on all the polls being at least somewhat accurate, but they've been supposedly 50/50 the whole time. If it was really 50/50 there would be outliers saying 55/45 every now and then (as per random sampling) but they haven't, it's been rigid, so it looks like the polling company's keep adjusting their polls so they don't say one way or the other and noone wants to stick their neck on the line.

They do seem to want that, though. Paradoxically, for a party called 'Republicans', they seem to desperately want a Royal family and have for some reason anointed these turds as it.

I am a horrible pessimist and cynic though, so always expect the worst possible outcome, especially when it's things that I have absolutely no influence in.

The thing is, on most things, he's right. The problem is that there is being right and then there's being right within The System and the former is especially futile in America but futile isn't wrong, its just pointless. But how do you affect change? How are the things you don't like going to improve if you just shrug your shoulders and say 'meh, what can you do?'.

Its like that Chappell Roan thing a few weeks ago with people giving her shit for not endorsing Harris. Would I vote for her? Given the choices, yes. Do I 'endorse' her? No, do I fuck. They are two different things.

Its the same tedious shit that we had in summer. 'Hold your nose and vote labour'. Fine, but that doesnt wash away every problem I have with them.

I think its simply that he is followed by an absolutely enormous amount of easily manipulated rubes. If he told them a three legged donkey would win the Kentucky Derby, you'd suddenly find it was the odds on favourite.

All I want to hear is that he loses. How it is even close is literally “incredible”. I really feel like it could go the cunts way tonight.

I disagree about Jones. On an incredibly broad superficial level he is on the right side; do something about the climate crisis, end the war in the middle east etc. But that's superficially true of Starmer/Lammy etc. as well. It doesn't mean much. His actual policy thoughts are half baked at best and usually shit, the actual implementation of any of that stuff. Then his political thought... Which considering he ran that definitely not part of Corbyn's campaign for the electoral commission's purposes in my constituency. Which absolutely littered the place with things saying Starmer was already complicit in war crimes as leader of the opposition or that Wes Streeting was going to specifically privatise the local hospital to spite Corbyn. Increasingly he's just a political actor himself. On that level he's fucking shite. It's all weapons grade student politics. It's like when the radical left sent students out to radicalise the working class. They then came back with various stories along the line of "they just wanted to talk about pot holes and the local crime rate". Obviously the working classes all suffered from false consciousness. Rather than the students being total prannies. 

Gearing up for election denial, but also... more. Telegram channels encouraging people to arm up and others to harass poll workers and such. "Just asking questions", of course.

www.bostonglobe.com/2024/11/04/business/telegram-election-day/

Pics on Reddit of people queuing in the dark to vote.

Let's hope these people are not (all) mental.

That's actually generous, given that, quoth George Carlin: "Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that."

Not that my opinion matters on the subject, and I have absolutely no influence on the outcome, I'm fairly confident of a Harris win. As others have mentioned the polls are worthless, and the betting markets are full of elon/trump/crypto lovers who think they are clever (but in reality are just in a small little circlejerk bubble).

They may be loud on social media, and the right wing press ignore all the obvious faults of trump - but the rallies have been shrinking, the moves are more and more desperate, and I think common sense will prevail.

It's scary though how many batshit insane people there are in America blindly supporting a rapist, racist, deluded, self serving conman - him losing is clearly the better outcome, but it doesn't fix things.

As some have touched on, it seems like people expect that voting is the end of their responsibility and other people are going to put in the hard yards to effect societal change.

Even if Harris wins in a landslide, The Democrats (even if they wanted to) aren't going to be able to turn the tide, unless it comes with a groundswell of demand for action from the people.

it *would* be very funny if the polling companies have got it totally wrong and one side wins in a landslide.