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Post by JuniorFE on Nov 2, 2024 11:36:20 GMT
Isn't he winning (in the polls) in the majority of those 7 swing states that they've been going on about as being key? 1) Polls have been increasingly unable to properly capture voting intent, being unwilling to change their methods, and have resorted to making it up as they go along more and more (pretty hard to get reliable data when people just aren't responding). 2) There's been a wave of transparently right-wing aligned polls skewing the averages, and polls in general still operate under the 2016/2020 models of overcompensating for Trump. Even with that into account the latest polls are increasingly leaning Dem. 3) Dems have been consistently outperforming the polls by great margins. Remember the "Great Red Wave" of 2022? Yeah, neither do I, because it only happened in pollsters' dreams. 4) In every other metric (Get Out The Vote effort, enthusiasm/rally sizes, grassroots donations, voter turnout -the higher the better for Democrats, consistently-, candidate signs etc) Trump is getting blown out of the water even in areas that were blood-red in earlier elections. FFS there's even been reports of the Muskrat's goons outright kidnapping people and coercing them to canvass, in some cases without even telling them who they're canvassing for! The GOTV effort on the GOP side has been nothing short of ridiculous, and not in the good sense... Tl;dr: polls mean precisely jack and shit, even those that show Harris in the lead. What matters is that people vote, and the actual result. Nothing else. |
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askew
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Post by askew on Nov 2, 2024 12:09:53 GMT
Please make him FOAD
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Post by baihu1983 on Nov 2, 2024 13:27:24 GMT
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Post by Whizzo on Nov 2, 2024 17:11:02 GMT
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Vortex
Full Member
Harvey Weinstein's Tattered Penis
is apparently a mangina.
Posts: 5,367
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Post by Vortex on Nov 2, 2024 17:13:56 GMT
I enjoyed the HIGNFY trump montage last night too.
Definitely a normal political party doing normal things. Bunch of absolute melts.
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JonFE
Junior Member
Uncomfortably numb...
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Post by JonFE on Nov 2, 2024 17:31:52 GMT
Who is more Greek, him or me?
Will you please just &@€# %&& Donnie?
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Post by peekconfusion on Nov 2, 2024 17:36:21 GMT
Hah, he's Black! He can't be Greek!
So original Donald.
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Post by Whizzo on Nov 2, 2024 17:50:07 GMT
Drumpf is a very Greek name.
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skalpadda
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Post by skalpadda on Nov 3, 2024 11:06:24 GMT
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Post by JuniorFE on Nov 3, 2024 12:48:59 GMT
If only such fact checking was also happening in the past 8 years of his utter bullshit firehose, rather than the media sanewashing everything... Better late than never, I guess! |
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Post by JuniorFE on Nov 3, 2024 12:53:00 GMT
Also (and I realise this opposes what I mentioned above about polls) there's this one pollster in Iowa, Selzer, with an incredibly good track record (one of the few to sound the alarm for Clinton back in 2016, among others).
She just predicted Harris +3 in Iowa. A state that Trump had been winning by double digits.
So either there's something very wrong with the poll for the first time in decades (the one time Selzer was off was still within the margin of error), or this could actually be quite the blowout...! Even if she loses Iowa, the fact that Trump likely only wins it by 1 or 2 (margin of error plus a bit more) is a very bad trend for the rest of the states (and it's very doubtful that Iowa just collectively lost its mind and every other state votes along 2020 trends)
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Post by rockavitch on Nov 4, 2024 13:40:26 GMT
I can't workout this time zone stuff, is the election coverage for us tonight or is it tomorrow?
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rftp
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Post by rftp on Nov 4, 2024 13:48:32 GMT
Tomorrow night.
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cubby
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doesn't get subtext
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Post by cubby on Nov 4, 2024 13:54:34 GMT
If you think about it in relatavist terms, they're stuck in the past. Their Tuesdays come after our Tuesdays. So when you say See You Next Tuesday to an American, they won't be able to hear it yet.
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Post by Bill in the rain on Nov 4, 2024 13:57:47 GMT
There is the potential not to get a result for days, or even weeks though.
So if you're going to stay up make sure you have lots of red bull.
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sport✅
Junior Member
notice me senpai
I want to claim my tits
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Post by sport✅ on Nov 4, 2024 14:14:12 GMT
Are they going to show that guy castrating himself in Iowa?
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Post by rockavitch on Nov 4, 2024 14:31:21 GMT
Ah ok, thanks. I remember it being 4th into 5th Nov for Obama and have had it in my mind since it's 4th out time.
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Post by Bill in the rain on Nov 4, 2024 14:35:23 GMT
Remember remember the 5th of November.
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Post by Whizzo on Nov 4, 2024 14:39:57 GMT
I did wonder why the UK election night stuff started at 22:00 UK time when we are 5 hours ahead of Eastern Standard Time so plenty of time left for people voting. Turns out the first exit polls are allowed to be released at 17:00 EST so that's very different from here.
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Post by Dougs on Nov 4, 2024 15:21:21 GMT
Oi, use this thread, nerds.
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Post by simple on Nov 4, 2024 15:41:22 GMT
I suspect private internal polling on both sides is showing a Harris win but she can’t risk a Bart/Martin situation and Trump can’t bare to lose face and let slip that he’s falling behind so its in both of their interests to maintain that its a closer fight than it might actually be.
Although Trump and Musk always stink of desperation so its hard to tell when its caused by something external or just their ongoing narcissism and daddy issues.
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Frog
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Post by Frog on Nov 4, 2024 15:45:20 GMT
Bbc polling was showing Trump winning 5 of 7 swing states but they were almost all within 1 percent
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rftp
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Post by rftp on Nov 4, 2024 15:45:48 GMT
It's also in the interests of the media to portray it as being balanced on a knife edge, too.
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Post by Jambowayoh on Nov 4, 2024 15:46:31 GMT
I don't trust any of the polls going at the moment.
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Post by baihu1983 on Nov 4, 2024 15:50:12 GMT
Super smart! We just don't see it
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Post by imamazed on Nov 4, 2024 15:50:46 GMT
I know it's old news, but I've become obsessed the video of Elon Musk chanting "US..A! US...A!" at one of the Oompah Loompah's rallies. It's sort of like he's just become aware of a new country, or trying to sing a karoake song having never heard it before.
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Post by simple on Nov 4, 2024 15:55:15 GMT
It's also in the interests of the media to portray it as being balanced on a knife edge, too. There is this too. But mainly I’m just basing it on vibe and hope. The Harris campaign has an air of quiet confidence around it that doesn’t seem to match what’s coming out of their mouths in terms of how on edge you’d expect them to be. Trump’s campaign has been giving off an air of implosion and desperate scrambling for at least a week. He doesn’t sound like a man who thinks he’s won, and given that’s his default state of mind, I don’t think he’s a good enough actor to only be pretending to be desperate now. Could be totally wrong though. Harris might just have a good brave face to put on things and Trump just suffering from being old as shit and unable to handle whatever cocktail of drugs gets him moving on a morning anymore. |
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Post by baihu1983 on Nov 4, 2024 15:56:50 GMT
I know it's old news, but I've become obsessed the video of Elon Musk chanting "US..A! US...A!" at one of the Oompah Loompah's rallies. It's sort of like he's just become aware of a new country, or trying to sing a karoake song having never heard it before. It's the HAAWAAH at the end that gets me. |
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X201
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Post by X201 on Nov 4, 2024 15:57:50 GMT
It's also in the interests of the media to portray it as being balanced on a knife edge, too. Are you trying to suggest that the one billion dollars of advertising that has been purchased this week alone may be a motivating factor? |
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rftp
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Post by rftp on Nov 4, 2024 16:03:50 GMT
It's also in the interests of the media to portray it as being balanced on a knife edge, too. Are you trying to suggest that the one billion dollars of advertising that has been purchased this week alone may be a motivating factor?  Couldn't possibly comment. |
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