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Post by Jambowayoh on Jul 14, 2024 11:21:01 GMT
skalpaddaI’m well aware of the Russian military shortcomings. But I think people underestimate to what extent Ukraine’s resilience has been propped up by ‘western’ weapons and cash. Trump will immediately withdraw that. That may embolden any European states on the fence either from a financial standpoint, a political one, or even a maintaining their own inventories stance. I don’t for a minute think Russia would roll through Ukraine and keep going either. I think they’d have a shit ton of natural resources from their conquest and I think they would have a period of rebuilding, probably bolstered by Trump lifting any US trade embargoes, releasing assets, blah blah blah. Their capacity for mischief with regards energy and gas supplies into Europe presumably increases with a fully compliant Ukraine too. I think ultimately Russia wants its USSR territories back. And with Trump always blathering on about NATO withdrawal that puts the likes of Poland and Finland in a very tough spot. Sorry if I’m using a lot of imagination and worst case shit. I grew up learning about McCarthyism and all that bad stuff, which was absolutely terrible, but I can’t get my head around how a country goes from a seemingly ingrained ‘reds under the bed’ mindset to a former and presumably future president and his followers seemingly openly supporting Russia. The big issue with Russia rebuilding is this is pretty much the last generation. Like a lot of countries they're not having a lot of babies, Putin has wiped out so many people in government that he perceives a threat that when he's gone they don't really have anyone competent just a long line of people ready to continue the corrupt gravy train. It's not as if they've been investing in the country to any great degree. I think it's very easy to get into doom mode with a second Trump presidency regarding Russia but they're not this unstoppable juggernaut.
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Post by puddleduck on Jul 14, 2024 11:21:40 GMT
My fear is this ends up affecting Trump's mental health, but it does so after the campaigning and he's won. That once in power, the suspicion, the paranoia, the trauma, it all starts to come out in progressively more unhinged ways.
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apollo
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Post by apollo on Jul 14, 2024 11:21:44 GMT
He looks disappointed that his plan failed. typical trump doing stuff on the cheap, maybe shouldn't of used craiglist (or craggglist as Americans call it)
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Post by Jambowayoh on Jul 14, 2024 11:43:23 GMT
My fear is this ends up affecting Trump's mental health, but it does so after the campaigning and he's won. That once in power, the suspicion, the paranoia, the trauma, it all starts to come out in progressively more unhinged ways. Yeah, he's been totally chill up 'til now.
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Post by skalpadda on Jul 14, 2024 11:54:42 GMT
drakesmoke See above, and also just look at the relative numbers involved. The US releasing Russian assets or opening trade isn't going to shift the needle.
If Russia fucks with Finland (which was never part of the USSR or behind the Iron Curtain btw, though it was a duchy in the Russian Empire) or Poland, it wouldn't be anything like Ukraine, even considering just the current militaries of those two countries alone. Ukraine has been fighting on its own, and while I entirely agree that Western material support has been crucial, what they've been given is a pittance compared to what we have, and Europe is arming up significantly compared to the start of the war.
Even if Russia somehow re-conquered all the USSR territories they'd still not magically be in a position to overwhelm 500 million Europeans on a war footing in an open conflict. And getting back and pacifying the USSR would take decades, so this would go beyond Putin and likely all of us. And it would require teaming up with or defeating China, because most of Central Asia is their sphere of interest now. Again, I'm not saying everything is fine. None of this is good, and there are certainly scenarios where things could turn out disastrous, but there's a lot that would have to break down and go completely to hell for Russia alone to be an existential threat to even Eastern/Central/Northern Europe, much less Western Europe.
apollo Okay, Putin manages to win in Ukraine, takes Georgia, somehow avoids war with or defeats Turkey and takes Azerbaijan, somehow avoids war with or defeats China and takes Kazakhstan and the other former USSR countries in Central Asia. Meanwhile Europe has been doing nothing in response to this, or fractured completely, or... something?
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X201
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Post by X201 on Jul 14, 2024 11:55:08 GMT
My fear is this ends up affecting Trump's mental health, but it does so after the campaigning and he's won. That once in power, the suspicion, the paranoia, the trauma, it all starts to come out in progressively more unhinged ways. With him mouthing “Fight”, “Fight”,“Fight” as he was dragged off stage, I’d say he’d already gone. Either that, or he’s channeling a 10 year old from a British playground
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Post by manfromdelmonte on Jul 14, 2024 12:09:07 GMT
It will certainly shift his perspective. He has little to no regard for the safety of others, but when his own safety is tangible jeopardised? Like the early attempts of Hitler's life, it might harden his megalomania. Or he may slip into anxiety and spend much of his campaign/possible second term medicated.
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Tuffty
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Post by Tuffty on Jul 14, 2024 12:25:08 GMT
It is interesting in what a colossal failure it was on the shooters part. Trump barely injured let alone assassinated. Gets killed himself. Even the ones that would in theory be on your side and hope perhaps see you as a martyr hate you for trying or even missing. And you injured innocent people, murdering one.
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baihu1983
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Post by baihu1983 on Jul 14, 2024 12:32:05 GMT
I'm sure he will do the same here
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apollo
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Post by apollo on Jul 14, 2024 12:36:09 GMT
_@drakesmoke
apollo Okay, Putin manages to win in Ukraine, takes Georgia, somehow avoids war with or defeats Turkey and takes Azerbaijan, somehow avoids war with or defeats China and takes Kazakhstan and the other former USSR countries in Central Asia. Meanwhile Europe has been doing nothing in response to this, or fractured completely, or... something? Have a slow response like they did with Ukraine, have a meeting about having a meeting, eventually arrange some weapons to be sent . Also Putin has the far left and the far right in europe which both like him to various degrees
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Post by Whizzo on Jul 14, 2024 12:42:11 GMT
This is more Larry Bond than Tom Clancy.
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drakesmoke
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We gotta talk about that ride kid. Next clue to the case!
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Post by drakesmoke on Jul 14, 2024 12:44:56 GMT
Yeah which his troll farms have helped to germinate. You’ll never convince me otherwise that both Brexit and Trump MkI weren’t hugely bolstered by Russian bots and troll farms commenting in just the right places.
Again, I’m aware of how nails Finland and Poland are. It’s not a binary success/failure thing though for me, every one of these military adventures ends up a tragedy for millions and whether or not Ukraine, Finland or anybody else bloodies Russian noses in an invasion, millions suffer.
Let’s not forget the small matter of nuclear annihilation, in honour of the new little sarcastic thread title, let’s not be fully assured it all remains conventional a la Red Storm Rising.
The points raised by Jambo about the population/demographics/infrasture are all excellent though.
I was doing alright missing the news for my mental wellbeing until Rishi Sunak and now Donald fucking Duck changed it.
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Post by dfunked on Jul 14, 2024 12:47:34 GMT
MIL was round earlier and and said something along the lines of "I've been saying it's only a matter of time before they try to pull this off"
Funnily enough she wasn't aware that the shooter was a registered republican.
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Frog
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Post by Frog on Jul 14, 2024 13:00:30 GMT
Is that confirmed or is it just internet rumours.
Edit: I see the BBC are reporting it as being stated by US news.
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Post by Duffking on Jul 14, 2024 13:02:03 GMT
Supposedly confirmed? Voter registration is public data and you can find the data via his name and state, and the age etc all lines up.
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drakesmoke
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We gotta talk about that ride kid. Next clue to the case!
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Post by drakesmoke on Jul 14, 2024 13:08:23 GMT
MIL was round earlier and and said something along the lines of "I've been saying it's only a matter of time before they try to pull this off" Funnily enough she wasn't aware that the shooter was a registered republican. What is it about in laws
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Post by 😎 on Jul 14, 2024 13:09:43 GMT
Just to be clear, voter registration means very little, so until there’s clearer information no conclusions can or should be made. It’s often a case people will register R just so they can vote in closed state primaries. Happens a lot here.
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Ulythium
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Post by Ulythium on Jul 14, 2024 13:32:46 GMT
That, plus the MAGA crowd will claim that he was an undercover Antifa agent no matter what news emerges in the coming days, so it won't make a blind bit of difference to them.
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Post by FlexibleFeline on Jul 14, 2024 13:33:58 GMT
Yeah, and it seems he has made at least one donation to a Dem organisation too. Sorry, need to find the source for that again, but I don't think it can be used as the stick some want to use it for. Here it is, scroll down for info on him.- He was a registered Republican, according to state voter records - But according to Reuters, when he was 17, he made a $15 donation to ActBlue, a political action committee that raises money for left-leaning and Democratic politiciansOkay, I don't know what the hell ActBlue is, but I don't think there's huge mileage to be had out of him being a registered Republican at this point.
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Post by Jambowayoh on Jul 14, 2024 13:39:39 GMT
I think we can all agree he was a fucking idiot regardless of his political affiliation.
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Frog
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Post by Frog on Jul 14, 2024 13:55:57 GMT
There are several people with his name where he is from. I would wait before making any assumptions based off early information.
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MolarAm🔵
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Post by MolarAm🔵 on Jul 14, 2024 14:15:04 GMT
I heard that he was an English trying to restore the monarchy in America.
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Post by FlexibleFeline on Jul 14, 2024 14:19:51 GMT
I heard he thought the bosses in the Elden Ring DLC were better than those in the main game.
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Post by 😎 on Jul 14, 2024 14:21:13 GMT
He inverted his controls
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Post by Whizzo on Jul 14, 2024 14:27:39 GMT
Maybe if he had inverted his controls he wouldn't have fucking missed.
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drakesmoke
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We gotta talk about that ride kid. Next clue to the case!
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Post by drakesmoke on Jul 14, 2024 14:30:05 GMT
Don’t understand people with non-inverted controls, especially in first person. If you view the thumb stick as your neck, you angle it back to look upwards.
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Post by FlexibleFeline on Jul 14, 2024 14:32:45 GMT
Shit's finally about to get real in this thread!
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MolarAm🔵
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Post by MolarAm🔵 on Jul 14, 2024 14:34:11 GMT
It probably won't, because it's inverted.
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malek86
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Post by malek86 on Jul 14, 2024 14:39:21 GMT
Don’t understand people with non-inverted controls, especially in first person. If you view the thumb stick as your neck, you angle it back to look upwards. The neck argument doesn't make sense, and I say that as someone who plays inverted. Anyway, it's not a matter of inverted or not, the guy needed some aim assist. Or maybe an aim bot.
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Post by Jambowayoh on Jul 14, 2024 14:41:32 GMT
All the inverted perverts come climbing out with their necks pointing up.
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