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Post by imamazed on Oct 27, 2021 12:25:13 GMT
I can't remember the specifics from the Indy ref but seem to remember there was a way through that. May have been spin etc, but whilst I understand the nervousness by Spain, the situations aren't really the same. Time will tell I guess. Yeah, my understanding is that the Spain/Catalonia objections to Scotland rejoining is overblown by those that reject the idea of Scottish independence. The situations are not comparable and Spain have pretty much said they wouldn't object. They have also been quick to acknowledge the independence of other nations. My guess is if this actually became a reality (feels less likely to happen now, at least until after N. Ireland joins the South), then Spain would make just enough noise to get something out of agreeing to Scotland rejoining, but would ultimately allow it. No, Spain has said it would be OK with Scotland re-applying for EU membership. That's very different and, although the Catalonia situation is also very different, when push comes to shove I can't imagine them approving a Scottish entry. Even if it is a different situation it won't necessarily be perceived as such. For sure, there's a lot of exaggeration and spin on both sides, but it wouldn't necessarily be as straight forward as most Nationalists suggest. |
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Post by Tonka (🐑,🪤) on Oct 27, 2021 12:36:17 GMT
Is it really as bad in the UK as some are making it sound? Serious question, the news has a tendency to pick up on the anomalies and sometimes bad stuff get amplified. What I'm hearing recently from the UK sound pretty rough. No food, no gasoline, no lorry drivers, shit in rivers and the sea, etc.
Is it a bit hyped up would you say?
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Post by Dougs on Oct 27, 2021 12:43:02 GMT
It ain't brilliant. Everything is rising in price, including the essentials. Definitely going to be hard for a lot of people. Sure, there's food on the shelves but there's often less choice and it's more expensive. Every month I notice a product increasing in price by at least 5%. Or staying the same price, but reducing in amount. It's very frustrating that this is all self-inflicted.
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Post by imamazed on Oct 27, 2021 12:44:24 GMT
Is it really as bad in the UK as some are making it sound? Serious question, the news has a tendency to pick up on the anomalies and sometimes bad stuff get amplified. What I'm hearing recently from the UK sound pretty rough. No food, no gasoline, no lorry drivers, shit in rivers and the sea, etc. Is it a bit hyped up would you say? There are some regional differences but yeh, I think you could say it's pretty bad. Round here there's always been plenty of food in shops, but choice in right down. Petrol was a nightmare for 10 days and now it's very expensive. Random shortages cropping up in loads of different shops and industries. Energy prices high. Inflation is going to start to bite. As always, you'll be shielded from it by wealth, so it's much worse the less money you have. As climate change takes hold and resources start to dwindle this was always going to happen but it definitely seems like Brexit has accelerated this for us much faster than in other countries. EDIT - or, what Dougs says, yeh. |
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Post by Dougs on Oct 27, 2021 12:48:11 GMT
Petrol is insane at the moment. 40p a litre more expensive than 4/5 years ago. We probably only use a tank a month but that's still a big rise.
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Post by grey_matters on Oct 27, 2021 12:57:18 GMT
Yeah, my understanding is that the Spain/Catalonia objections to Scotland rejoining is overblown by those that reject the idea of Scottish independence. The situations are not comparable and Spain have pretty much said they wouldn't object. They have also been quick to acknowledge the independence of other nations. My guess is if this actually became a reality (feels less likely to happen now, at least until after N. Ireland joins the South), then Spain would make just enough noise to get something out of agreeing to Scotland rejoining, but would ultimately allow it. No, Spain has said it would be OK with Scotland re-applying for EU membership. That's very different and, although the Catalonia situation is also very different, when push comes to shove I can't imagine them approving a Scottish entry. Even if it is a different situation it won't necessarily be perceived as such. For sure, there's a lot of exaggeration and spin on both sides, but it wouldn't necessarily be as straight forward as most Nationalists suggest. So long as the independence is achieved legally (rubberstamped, however grudgingly, by Westminster) Spain will not object. Scotland will succeed in its membership application providing it fulfils all other criteria. Not a trifling matter, but very achievable and there is a lot of goodwill towards Scotland throughout Europe. England and Wales too to a large extent, but that ship isn't sailing for a while I guess. |
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Post by imamazed on Oct 27, 2021 12:59:53 GMT
No, Spain has said it would be OK with Scotland re-applying for EU membership. That's very different and, although the Catalonia situation is also very different, when push comes to shove I can't imagine them approving a Scottish entry. Even if it is a different situation it won't necessarily be perceived as such. For sure, there's a lot of exaggeration and spin on both sides, but it wouldn't necessarily be as straight forward as most Nationalists suggest. So long as the independence is achieved legally (rubberstamped, however grudgingly, by Westminster) Spain will not object. Scotland will succeed in its membership application providing it fulfils all other criteria. Not a trifling matter, but very achievable and there is a lot of goodwill towards Scotland throughout Europe. England and Wales too to a large extent, but that ship isn't sailing for a while I guess. I don't know how you can say Spain won't object with such certainty. There was some very conservative, cautious positive noises from Spanish officials going back half a decade, but who knows what the situation would be when it came to it. |
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Post by Sarfrin on Oct 27, 2021 13:02:45 GMT
Is it really as bad in the UK as some are making it sound? Serious question, the news has a tendency to pick up on the anomalies and sometimes bad stuff get amplified. What I'm hearing recently from the UK sound pretty rough. No food, no gasoline, no lorry drivers, shit in rivers and the sea, etc. Is it a bit hyped up would you say? No, it really is this bad. |
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Post by Sarfrin on Oct 27, 2021 13:04:06 GMT
I think the easiest route for me will be Scottish independence, then Scottish citizenship enabling us to fuck off to Europe once the kids have left school. That second bit is pretty unlikely unfortunately, at least while Spain is still in the EU and retains a veto on new member states. Surely they could just point out how much it would piss off the English government? |
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dogbot
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Post by dogbot on Oct 27, 2021 13:07:46 GMT
Petrol is insane at the moment. 40p a litre more expensive than 4/5 years ago. We probably only use a tank a month but that's still a big rise. It's 20p a litre more than a few weeks ago. |
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sport✅
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Post by sport✅ on Oct 27, 2021 13:08:21 GMT
Let's get one thing straight - no one gets to leave!
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Post by Danno on Oct 27, 2021 13:10:01 GMT
I'm taking Canada back for Her Maj. Will quite likely take the rest of my life.
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Vandelay
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Post by Vandelay on Oct 27, 2021 13:16:57 GMT
For sure, there's a lot of exaggeration and spin on both sides, but it wouldn't necessarily be as straight forward as most Nationalists suggest. That's very true. It certainly wouldn't be a case that Scotland would be right back in the EU as soon as they ran away from the UK and plenty of other issues they would have to deal with outside of that. Still though, the threat of Spain vetoing their application is pretty low on the list of problems. Any quotes I've seen from them has said they would not veto their membership. The most they have said is they would have to go through the same process as everyone else (this position may change depending on whether the current opposition are in power though). fullfact.org/europe/eu-membership-spain-scotland/ |
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Post by imamazed on Oct 27, 2021 13:33:41 GMT
For sure, there's a lot of exaggeration and spin on both sides, but it wouldn't necessarily be as straight forward as most Nationalists suggest. That's very true. It certainly wouldn't be a case that Scotland would be right back in the EU as soon as they ran away from the UK and plenty of other issues they would have to deal with outside of that. Still though, the threat of Spain vetoing their application is pretty low on the list of problems. Any quotes I've seen from them has said they would not veto their membership. The most they have said is they would have to go through the same process as everyone else (this position may change depending on whether the current opposition are in power though). fullfact.org/europe/eu-membership-spain-scotland/Fair point - and yep acknowledging that Scotland would be eligible to apply has been the Spanish view, but I think actual membership is a lot more ambiguous though. The process for actually joining and its convergence criteria are frequently bent to the point where it's often downright a political choice to accept entry or not. That may not bode well for Scotland. In any case, the "Scottish EU escape route" may not be an easy one! I'll start looking again at the Scottish side of the family if it starts to look likely... |
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Dgzter
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Post by Dgzter on Oct 27, 2021 13:35:46 GMT
I can't remember the specifics from the Indy ref but seem to remember there was a way through that. May have been spin etc, but whilst I understand the nervousness by Spain, the situations aren't really the same. Time will tell I guess. Yeah, my understanding is that the Spain/Catalonia objections to Scotland rejoining is overblown by those that reject the idea of Scottish independence. The situations are not comparable and Spain have pretty much said they wouldn't object. They have also been quick to acknowledge the independence of other nations. My guess is if this actually became a reality (feels less likely to happen now, at least until after N. Ireland joins the South), then Spain would make just enough noise to get something out of agreeing to Scotland rejoining, but would ultimately allow it. Precisely. The Spanish veto is a long-standing Unionist canard designed to discourage undecided voters. It's been repeatedly proven to be a nonsense, but still gets frequently amplified by certain quarters of the media (both the no-supporting MSM and social media commentariat). |
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dam
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Post by dam on Oct 27, 2021 13:36:55 GMT
I voted No last time round, but could see the Spain veto was bollocks then. They would veto a UDI, or not recognise an illegal referendum. But if it's all above board...
EU re-entry would not be overnight - hopefully we could join the EEA more quickly. This would give us Single Market membership, and allow us to simultaneously to negotiate a trade deal with rUK.
Of coure the Unionist line will be that a vote for Yes will lead to a hard border and the complete cessation of trade overnight.
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Dgzter
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Post by Dgzter on Oct 27, 2021 13:38:47 GMT
In any case, the "Scottish EU escape route" may not be an easy one! I'll start looking again at the Scottish side of the family if it starts to look likely... I have no doubt that an independent Scotland would in a reasonable timeframe rejoin the EU. I'm less convinced that an independent Scotland is ever going to happen, however. |
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Post by imamazed on Oct 27, 2021 13:56:06 GMT
Yeah, my understanding is that the Spain/Catalonia objections to Scotland rejoining is overblown by those that reject the idea of Scottish independence. The situations are not comparable and Spain have pretty much said they wouldn't object. They have also been quick to acknowledge the independence of other nations. My guess is if this actually became a reality (feels less likely to happen now, at least until after N. Ireland joins the South), then Spain would make just enough noise to get something out of agreeing to Scotland rejoining, but would ultimately allow it. Precisely. The Spanish veto is a long-standing Unionist canard designed to discourage undecided voters. It's been repeatedly proven to be a nonsense, but still gets frequently amplified by certain quarters of the media (both the no-supporting MSM and social media commentariat). Oh it was certainly used as a tool of the Unionist cause. But it's also not nonsense, and cannot be proven as such as it's an innately hypothetical proposition. I would agree that it would be wrong and hyperbolic to say "If you vote for independence Scotland won't be able to join the EU" but it's a complex issue that requires some political comprehension of the situation in Spain and of EU decision-making. It holds less weight now rUK have left the EU anyway... |
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Dgzter
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Post by Dgzter on Oct 27, 2021 14:35:56 GMT
Well, yes, as you say, if we are talking about it in the most abstract hypothetical terms, i.e. Spain could use their veto to block an independent Scotland's entry into the EU, then it is impossible to disprove that. The mechanism exists, so Spain (or anyone else for that matter) could employ their veto to block re-entry. Just as they or any other member state could use their veto on literally any other issue that comes before the EU.
It's that second statement, which you quite rightly identify as wrong and exaggerated, that is the one most frequently amplified and repeated ad nauseum by certain quarters of the media, unfortunately: i.e., that Spain would do this, in a bid to stave off any risk of Catalonian succession. To my mind too, it's an issue that has been grossly and deliberately inflated, despite the fact that almost all indications from Spanish politicians and officials, and most notably those opposed to the notion of Catalonian independence, are that they would not pursue such a course of action, especially not just as some vague form of deterrent aimed at their own domestic political sphere.
Regardless, I'm not sure it's going to matter much. Most objective polling at the moment, freed from the spin of those on either side of the independence debate, suggests that the country is pretty much split down the middle. As such, it'll be the swing voters and undecideds that end up deciding, and with the increasing sophistication of social media manipulation and targeted amplification of misinformation, such as we've seen revealed by the FB whistleblower this week and in recent independent studies by the OII at Oxford, those with vested interests in undermining the EU or Western democracies more generally will likely be able to engineer the result they want.
EDIT: and, yes, my tin foil hat fits just fine, thank you!
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Post by imamazed on Oct 27, 2021 14:44:42 GMT
Well, yes, as you say, if we are talking about it in the most abstract hypothetical terms, i.e. Spain could use their veto to block an independent Scotland's entry into the EU, then it is impossible to disprove that. The mechanism exists, so Spain (or anyone else for that matter) could employ their veto to block re-entry. Just as they or any other member state could use their veto on literally any other issue that comes before the EU. It's that second statement, which you quite rightly identify as wrong and exaggerated, that is the one most frequently amplified and repeated ad nauseum by certain quarters of the media, unfortunately: i.e., that Spain would do this, in a bid to stave off any risk of Catalonian succession. To my mind, it's an issue that has been grossly and deliberately inflated, despite the fact that almost all indications from Spanish politicians and officials, and most notably those opposed to the notion of Catalonian independence, are that they would not pursue such a course of action, especially not just as some vague form of deterrent aimed at their own domestic political sphere. Well it's not completely abstract is it. It's very much hypothetical, but it's taken with knowledge of Spanish Geopolitics. I don't really agree there have been many firm indications that Spanish officials would not block Scottish ascension to the EU. I may have missed some commentary here, but it seems unlikely to me they'd make such firm statements on actual membership rather than application. I doubt any rejection would be 'vague' when it came down to it, but they'd hardly make a firm statement now. I hope, as you suggest, this is all moot though. I rather fear that Scotland will leave then next time the SNP get their "once in a generation" referendum. |
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Post by grey_matters on Oct 27, 2021 14:53:19 GMT
Nobody is saying it will be an automatic pre-approved membership card like Northern Ireland's but so long as the standard hoops are jumped through it will happen*. It will take some time (and the EEA route is a good idea probably), but it will happen with a fairly high degree of certainty. Technically, Scotland will be a major rival of Ireland and Ireland will never be seen saying anything official about Scotland joining the EU yet, but the very day an independent Scotland applies there will be huge support from here. That is echoed across all the small and medium countries. And most of the big ones. Scotland's soft diplomacy has been excellent for years.
I've no idea if NI joining Ireland will help independence though, there may be a small unionist exodus to Scotland which might tip the balance the other way.
*providing independence is ok with WM.
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Dgzter
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Post by Dgzter on Oct 27, 2021 16:02:23 GMT
I rather fear that Scotland will leave then next time the SNP get their "once in a generation" referendum. Can I ask why you believe the Scottish people would vote to leave the UK in the event of a referendum? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2021 16:59:16 GMT
My sister in law's (who is scottish) cousins voted for brexit as they were pissed off with the Scottish independence referendum. Tossers
Sure there will be another Scottish independence referendum at some point with the tories being cunts
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Post by Bill in the rain on Oct 28, 2021 4:50:08 GMT
More seriously than my previous post, I would caution against thinking 'everything is terrible in the UK' for several reasons.
One reason is that people have been saying that for decades, and while it's been variously more or less true at different points and in different places, things are still better in the UK than in a large number of places.
Another is that the Coronavirus was a freak event that has caused havok in many areas and will take a long time to recover from. But that's not unique to the UK. Japan has gotten off unbelievably lightly compared to the UK (300ish cases in the whole country yesterday), but people are still unhappy and the government is still getting blamed. Same is true in many countries.
While the UK as a whole does seem to indulge way too much in 'British Exceptionalism' and the idea that the UK and British people are somehow special or the envy of the world, they do conversely seem to also idulge in a lot of self criticism and so you get these endless stories about 'rip off Britain' and about how everything in the UK is worse than other places.
(Side note: There's a weird cognitive dissonance where it's usually the same right wing press that is simultaneously criticizing everything in the UK while also pedaling the idea that everyone in the world wants to come here and take it from us).
You'll usually find that people in other countries are also unhappy with their government and fed up with aspects of their lives. You'll also find that a lot of the issues that are frustrating in the UK will be equally frustrating in other countries... they might just not be as apparent if you're new there.
Which is all to say, it might not be as bad or as final as it appears. I mean, I grew up in the 80s and we all felt that the tories were destroying everything and it was the end of the world. Bad things happened, sure, but things carried on.
From visits back to the uk, which may not present the full picture I admit, I still think people overall have it pretty good.
On the other hand, I was only half joking about relying on you guys to fix it. If bad things are happening then it's up to the people to actually do something about it - by voting or volunteering or running for office or protesting or whatever.
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askew
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Post by askew on Oct 28, 2021 7:04:52 GMT
Alas protest is now illegal should you end up annoying somebody.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2021 7:13:39 GMT
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Post by dfunked on Oct 28, 2021 7:13:56 GMT
We have such an obvious bunch of corrupt and incompetent politicians in power, who can seemingly do no wrong in the eyes of the public thanks to the daily mail etc.
Brexit on its own would be bad enough, but together with the pandemic it really does feel like a shit sandwich.
So yeah, everything is terrible in the UK.
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Bongo Heracles
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Post by Bongo Heracles on Oct 28, 2021 7:16:37 GMT
I rather fear that Scotland will leave then next time the SNP get their "once in a generation" referendum. Can I ask why you believe the Scottish people would vote to leave the UK in the event of a referendum? Im not Scottish but imagine most people would answer ‘we share a border with a nation of cunts’ |
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Post by drhickman1983 on Oct 28, 2021 7:24:29 GMT
More seriously than my previous post, I would caution against thinking 'everything is terrible in the UK' for several reasons. There's absolutely worse places to live than Britain, but the least shit is still shit. Given how broken and manipulated our democracy feels I have very little faith in our government system. When there are elected MPs who ignore their constituents because they need to keep to the party line (such as in the whole sewage dumping debacle), it does make me wonder what then point of it all is. I'm increasingly drifting being socialism and dreaming of full blown anarchism. Our whole system is fucked and corrupt. |
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Post by Sarfrin on Oct 28, 2021 7:45:57 GMT
I grew up in the 80s and it is worse now. At least back then they pretended to be contrite when caught doing something wrong and resigned. Now they have a go at the people who caught them and carry on.
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