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Post by Dougs on Jan 30, 2023 17:42:44 GMT
It's just usual contingency planning I suspect. Prudent, even if the likelihood of it happening is v small. Local and central govt do exercises all the time to plan for loads of different things.
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Post by clemfandango on Jan 30, 2023 17:46:29 GMT
Yeah it is, but definitely feels like something is in the air. Can't see us getting to the back end of 2024 for the next general...
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Whizzo
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Post by Whizzo on Jan 30, 2023 18:33:58 GMT
Think pretty much everyone has run out of patience from the current idiots, there's still potentially just short of two more years of these fuckers. 24/1/25 for an election? Fuck that.
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zephro
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Post by zephro on Jan 30, 2023 19:20:43 GMT
I’m at the aea conference in Birmingham at the moment. Just been in a seminar for planning for a snap general election. It’s being treated very seriously. Interesting, but I still can't see what the path to a snap election is. It is only going to happen if Sunak calls for one and I don't see any reason for him to do that, unless he sees a chance to win it. At the moment, polling is very far from that*. Would love it to happen, but our system just doesn't really accommodate getting rid of a government that is failing when they have a majority of any reasonable size. *Slight caveat to that is that a few polling experts are saying that there are quite a few don't knows and that those don't knows are likely shy Tories. The numbers out of the polling booths, likely won't be as bad as they appear, but I can't see it being big enough for them to actually form a government and certainly not one that has anywhere near the power they have now. Happily someone has crunched the numbers of previous elections: sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/12/is-labour-really-heading-for-a-314-seat-majoritySo from mid Parliament the dunnos will squeeze it by 3-5%, but right now that'd squeeze down a 20%+ poll lead to a 15% poll lead for Labour, which is still a healthy majority. It's just not the Tories being wiped out to 50 MPs. Something spectacular will have to happen.
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Post by Vandelay on Jan 30, 2023 19:27:40 GMT
That's good to hear. I hear it mentioned a lot that it isn't as rosy as the polls make it look, but no one goes on to say what impact the don't knows will have. I felt that it surely couldn't make such a big difference that they would lose, but good to have the actual numbers to show that.
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zephro
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Post by zephro on Jan 30, 2023 19:51:30 GMT
The other thing to note from the article comparing mid points of parliaments with eventual elections, was that all the successful defences by the Tories including May they were holding on to 67%-72% of their previous vote (which was improved by the election due to don't knows) at the mid point. Currently they're on 42%, for comparison the last government that had underlying ratings that bad of retaining their own voters was Brown in 2007-8 who had 45%. So lots of the trends and such do not look at all good for the Tories right now.
They're also behind on who looks more Prime Ministerial and who would handle the Economy better. Which also has not happened since New Labour. Labour got ahead in the polls a few times under Milliband and even Corbyn, but would lose out on the other 2. So the underlying information is more "solid" than those previous ones.
Obviously time can make fools of us all.
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Whizzo
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Post by Whizzo on Jan 30, 2023 20:47:04 GMT
Talking of fools, oh dear Mr Sunak.
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dogbot
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Post by dogbot on Jan 30, 2023 20:54:39 GMT
Does anyone really believe that top tories are paying all their tax?
That's for the proles.
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Post by Dougs on Jan 31, 2023 7:39:59 GMT
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Bongo Heracles
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Post by Bongo Heracles on Jan 31, 2023 7:46:29 GMT
Damn Putin and Covid affecting just us specifically and nothing else
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sport✅
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notice me senpai
I want to claim my tits
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Post by sport✅ on Jan 31, 2023 7:58:36 GMT
Clearly the fastest vaccine rollout is to blame. We sacrificed the economy to save you, the voting public.
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Goban
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Post by Goban on Jan 31, 2023 8:02:34 GMT
That and us British plebs being lazy and unproductive.
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Bongo Heracles
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Post by Bongo Heracles on Jan 31, 2023 8:10:26 GMT
It is funny that they have two things to avoid talking about; Brexit and now the useless fuckpig they left in charge for a month that left people unable to pay their mortgages.
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Whizzo
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Post by Whizzo on Jan 31, 2023 8:52:25 GMT
The UK declaring economic sanctions on itself has surprisingly not worked out very well.
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Chopsen
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Post by Chopsen on Jan 31, 2023 8:55:14 GMT
And Truss has not given up.
She's got her own group of MPs within the party that support her and have come up with a special name for themselves, and she's recently been touring the US talking to Republicans.
Fuck knows what she thinks she can achieve
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Bongo Heracles
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Post by Bongo Heracles on Jan 31, 2023 9:00:54 GMT
She wont be completely finished until people can no longer make money from her
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2023 9:21:09 GMT
Headlines on the radio this morning were: UK only country to shrink And "Sunak gives speech on how UK is taking advantage of Brexit." That must have been deliberate.
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dogbot
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Post by dogbot on Jan 31, 2023 9:30:55 GMT
It is funny that they have two things to avoid talking about; Brexit and now the useless fuckpig they left in charge for a month that left people unable to pay their mortgages. She was in the FT (I think) last week saying that her plan was right and it would have worked if she had only had proper support. Sometimes, I think it's amazing how someone so utterly ignorant and stupid can rise so far. Then I remember that given the slightest chance, Boris will likely be back as PM again.
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Whizzo
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Post by Whizzo on Jan 31, 2023 9:50:00 GMT
Unfortunately this isn't far from the truth.
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Post by Honk If You're Horny? on Jan 31, 2023 11:15:46 GMT
I'm stunned that the Russian economy is going to out perform the UK.
Naivety on my part, I genuinely thought the level and scale of sanctions were going to work.
It's tiring to constantly harp on about Brexit but between that and Tory incompetence here we are.
Maybe we can export a few Tories to Moscow as a new kind of sanction.
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X201
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Post by X201 on Jan 31, 2023 11:42:39 GMT
There's worse to come. Later this year they're going to start crowing about how their policies have brought inflation under control and use it as vindication for shafting the nurses, teachers etc.
The problem is, inflation will come down on it's own anyway, as the fuel price increase that happened when the Ukraine war started will naturally disappear from the figures used to calculate inflation.
Literally doing nothing will bring the inflation figures down.
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Post by gibroon on Jan 31, 2023 12:54:48 GMT
If the energy prices are going to go up for businesses in April as much as they say they are, small businesses are going to fall at an alarming rate. Conservative mantra of being good for business is going to look really fucking abysmal. Still, they seem to have completely brainwashed some folk who just continue to vote Tory no matter how bad they get. This country deserves what it gets imo. We are truly blinded and inept in so many departments except for wanton corruption that seems to be unchecked these days and some how applauded by more rich people.
Just so sick of it all.
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geefe
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Post by geefe on Jan 31, 2023 13:15:44 GMT
I know others disagree with me but I still genuinely feel a few years on the Brexit naughty step will change mindsets for the long term.
It could very well be that, if Labour play it right, we can be back in some form of customs union by the end of the decade.
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cubby
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Post by cubby on Jan 31, 2023 13:20:03 GMT
We'll have to really suffer for us to end up back in. Unless we can somehow magically get all the exemptions that we had before we left saying we'll have to join the euro is going to be a massive hurdle for even some remainers.
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Post by Jambowayoh on Jan 31, 2023 13:24:12 GMT
I know others disagree with me but I still genuinely feel a few years on the Brexit naughty step will change mindsets for the long term. It could very well be that, if Labour play it right, we can be back in some form of customs union by the end of the decade. I just can't see that tbh, especially as to what we'd have to conform to get in some kind of union. We had it so, so, so good with what we were allowed to keep, we wouldn't get those allowances again especially after being so cuntish on the way out.
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dogbot
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Post by dogbot on Jan 31, 2023 13:30:48 GMT
There's literally no way the people who maneuvered us into Brexit (Murdoch/RW press, Tice & the Capital Hedge Funds, Tories etc) in the first place will allow public opinion to slip far enough back towards rejoining to allow a majority vote for that unless it supports their interests.
And it doesn't, it won't.
Pipe dream.
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Post by Bill in the rain on Jan 31, 2023 13:38:42 GMT
Can't see it happening when you have the Daily Mail, Express etc.. [edit] Ninja'd! [/edit]
Even a customs union isn't going to help with a lot of things that'll increase costs, like different drug approval systems.
On the other hand, each generation grows up reacting against the previous generation, so who knows.
Starmer should promise to bring down inflation by next year. Then when people call him out on taking credit for something he has no control over, he can just point...
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Post by Jambowayoh on Jan 31, 2023 13:40:17 GMT
Doesn't seem to work when it's the other side doing it. The Tories have bee pointing the finger for over 12 years now. It's consistently worked.
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Post by reddevil93 on Jan 31, 2023 13:45:17 GMT
I'm stunned that the Russian economy is going to out perform the UK. Naivety on my part, I genuinely thought the level and scale of sanctions were going to work. It's tiring to constantly harp on about Brexit but between that and Tory incompetence here we are. Maybe we can export a few Tories to Moscow as a new kind of sanction. Turns out the self imposed sanctions by the Tories and 1/3 of the UK population are tougher than those against Russia.
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X201
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Post by X201 on Jan 31, 2023 18:13:38 GMT
Graph says it all
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