askew
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Post by askew on Jul 2, 2024 20:33:29 GMT
Let ‘em cook
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cubby
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Post by cubby on Jul 2, 2024 20:36:51 GMT
Tactical.vote have withdrawn their recommendation for my constituency in order to avoid a clash between different tactical voting websites, which kind of suggests they had a different recommendation to stopthetories.vote, right?
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X201
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Post by X201 on Jul 2, 2024 20:54:32 GMT
Just a couple more Lib Dem’s needed 🤞🏻
The exit poll will be nothing like this, the embarrassed Tory will be out in force again.
Hung Parliament 🤦🏻♂️
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Vandelay
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Post by Vandelay on Jul 2, 2024 21:31:35 GMT
Oh... They changed it! Now I look crazy. It originally said something like "'Disgusting and despicable' row erupts as Lib Dem candidate accused of pretending to be blind"
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Dgzter
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Post by Dgzter on Jul 2, 2024 21:35:49 GMT
Oh... They changed it! Now I look crazy. It originally said something like "'Disgusting and despicable' row erupts as Lib Dem candidate accused of pretending to be blind" Yeah, I glanced at the original earlier, which they've obviously now updated. As you say, at a cursory glance it gave a woefully misleading impression.
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X201
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Post by X201 on Jul 3, 2024 5:01:52 GMT
Come on people, keep it together. Just 24 hours to go. We can make it through this crap. ![](https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/d118/live/429e98d0-38b9-11ef-bdc5-41d7421c2adf.png.webp)
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Post by Dougs on Jul 3, 2024 5:02:48 GMT
Either the pollsters are horribly wrong or there's nothing to worry about. How accurate were MRPs last time out?
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Post by Dougs on Jul 3, 2024 5:04:01 GMT
Come on people, keep it together. Just 24 hours to go. We can make it through this crap. ![](https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/d118/live/429e98d0-38b9-11ef-bdc5-41d7421c2adf.png.webp) Desperate stuff. Boris may have his fans in the party but the wider public still haven't forgotten. Reminds me, have The Sun declared for Labour yet?
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Post by Bill in the rain on Jul 3, 2024 5:35:00 GMT
I like Starmergeddon ![:D](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/grin.png)
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cubby
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Post by cubby on Jul 3, 2024 5:40:22 GMT
It definitely worked last time
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Post by Bill in the rain on Jul 3, 2024 5:50:59 GMT
I don't think it's blocked in the UK by the contempt of court issue anymore, now that the Letby trial has finished, but I won't put a link just in case. The New Yorker has a very long article about the case.
I'm reluctant to draw too much of a conclusion from it, as I find a well written article is often very persuasive, but not always correct.
But I would not be at all surprised if this comes back as a miscarriage of justice in a few years.
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X201
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Post by X201 on Jul 3, 2024 6:10:36 GMT
Come on people, keep it together. Just 24 hours to go. We can make it through this crap. ![](https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/d118/live/429e98d0-38b9-11ef-bdc5-41d7421c2adf.png.webp) Desperate stuff. Boris may have his fans in the party but the wider public still haven't forgotten. Reminds me, have The Sun declared for Labour yet? The Times have declared for Starmer, but not on the front page. I suspect The Sun is waiting until the last minute. Not really as essential as it used to be. All newspaper numbers are through the floor on what they were
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otto
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Post by otto on Jul 3, 2024 6:14:55 GMT
But I would not be at all surprised if this comes back as a miscarriage of justice in a few years. In what sense?
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Post by Dougs on Jul 3, 2024 6:37:25 GMT
That was the retrial of one charge. Where she was also found guilty. So that's 2 separate juries who have found the evidence compelling to convict. It's possible but unlikely from what little I could stomach to read.
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Post by dfunked on Jul 3, 2024 6:46:21 GMT
The guardian really are putting some awful article titles out there lately.
"Boris Johnson takes swipe at Starmer and scorns Sunak in first campaign appearance"
Then if you get past that bit of utter click bait:
"He thanked the prime minister for asking him to come, but that was the only mention of Sunak in his speech."
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otto
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Post by otto on Jul 3, 2024 6:53:42 GMT
Didn’t he also say yesterday that he backed Patel to replace Sunak?
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Bongo Heracles
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Post by Bongo Heracles on Jul 3, 2024 7:14:32 GMT
Why did they think the bloated corpse of Jimmy Savile would help their campaign?
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Vandelay
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Post by Vandelay on Jul 3, 2024 7:16:06 GMT
Either the pollsters are horribly wrong or there's nothing to worry about. How accurate were MRPs last time out? It is getting harder to ignore these sort of numbers, when multiple polls are telling the same story. Only being a few seats ahead of the Lib Dems could still see them becoming the third largest party within weeks or months too; I'm certain there is going to be one hell of a storm from the remaining Tories, likely before the final counts have been declared. Whichever side ends up taking the reins, expect the other to be pissed off and potentially walk. At least one thing is fairly certain; after his campaign, I can't see Farage being a welcome defector to take over.
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Ulythium
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Post by Ulythium on Jul 3, 2024 7:56:04 GMT
But I would not be at all surprised if this comes back as a miscarriage of justice in a few years. In what sense?
I'm curious about this too.
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Whizzo
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Post by Whizzo on Jul 3, 2024 8:06:12 GMT
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Post by Bill in the rain on Jul 3, 2024 8:09:09 GMT
I'm curious about this too. Like I say, it's only based on one article, but it definitely makes it sound like (a) it's very similar to other recent miscarriages in other countries, (b) the statistical evidence that started things off is rather shaky, (c) the evidence is relatively circumstantial and based on 'expert' witnesses that might not be as expert as they claim, (d) other experts have cast some doubt on the claims, but weren't called by the defence, etc.. I'm just an article reader, not privy to all the details of the case, so I'm not claiming it's a miscarriage, just hoping that it isn't.
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Bongo Heracles
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Post by Bongo Heracles on Jul 3, 2024 8:16:27 GMT
I read a stat where somebody crunched the numbers of the various polls and whatnot and while it didn't specify the exact number, they said their is a 99% certainty Labour will beat the '97 seat count.
I mean, its almost academic after a point but the thing a bigger trouncing guarantees is that more of the big dogs will lose their seats so its something we should be pushing for. And as unlikely as it is, it would be hilarious to have them pushed down into third or worse.
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Ulythium
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Post by Ulythium on Jul 3, 2024 8:19:22 GMT
Bill in the rain Thanks for responding. Sorry if it seemed as though I was piling on, as that honestly wasn't my intention! If you want to delve any deeper, there's a lot of information available here: www.reddit.com/r/lucyletby/The Reddit page is very much pro-guilt, so in that sense it's as biased as the New Yorker article, but if nothing else it serves as a counterpoint to the "miscarriage of justice" crowd.
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Whizzo
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Post by Whizzo on Jul 3, 2024 8:19:49 GMT
Vote Tory or your pets will die!
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Bongo Heracles
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Post by Bongo Heracles on Jul 3, 2024 8:29:40 GMT
the statistical evidence that started things off is rather shaky Im pretty sure this isn't true at all. AFAIK, for pretty much the entire time she worked at the hospital, every time something bad happened to a baby she was on shift without exception. As in you literally could not get stronger statistical correlation.
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Bongo Heracles
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Post by Bongo Heracles on Jul 3, 2024 8:31:32 GMT
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Post by Bill in the rain on Jul 3, 2024 8:39:07 GMT
the statistical evidence that started things off is rather shaky Im pretty sure this isn't true at all. AFAIK, for pretty much the entire time she worked at the hospital, every time something bad happened to a baby she was on shift without exception. As in you literally could not get stronger statistical correlation. Again, I can only go by the article, but they mention several issues such as defining what is 'something bad' or not, and the statistical analysis being based only on the incidents in question, rather than a wider range. As we all know, statistics can show almost anything depending on how they're filtered and presented, and the article mentions several experts who have issues with them. I'm not an expert, so I have no idea which experts are correct or incorrect.
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Psiloc
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Post by Psiloc on Jul 3, 2024 8:45:26 GMT
Have you seen the Tories latest campaign video? It had a bloke getting up in the dark on the 4th of July because his power had been cut off, then sitting down to look sadly at his various "final notice" energy bills, then looking at a paper that says "FTSE CRASHES", then looking at a news notification on his phone that says "inflation at record highs", before finally deciding he can't afford to go on holiday or fill his car up any more. It closes with a caption that says "48 hours to stop a Starmer super majority".
THIS IS LITERALLY A CATALOGUE OF THE THINGS THAT ACTUALLY ALREADY HAPPENED UNDER THE TORIES
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Ulythium
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Post by Ulythium on Jul 3, 2024 8:48:18 GMT
The article in question is biased in the extreme, and cherry-picks information the same way it accuses the prosecution of doing.
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otto
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Post by otto on Jul 3, 2024 8:51:02 GMT
I did read the Guardian's piece on the Letby trial and her chances of appeal and that raised a couple of yellow flags. I don't know. One has to have faith in the justice system, but the justice system doesn't always make that easy.
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