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Post by simple on Oct 12, 2024 11:11:00 GMT
Looks like there might finally being some red lines hit in the Middle East with the West not being happy about the UN Peacekeeper HQ being deliberately targeted and UN aid agencies being banned from sending food through Israel into Palestine.
Its far too late but maybe now is the point where Israel’s allies say enough.
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Post by Bill in the rain on Oct 12, 2024 11:22:42 GMT
I wouldn't count on it. They've hit a whole load of UN aid sites in Gaza with their 'targeted strikes' and non of their allies in the west has done anything harder than wave their finger at them.
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Post by peacemaker on Oct 12, 2024 11:38:13 GMT
Yeah if the past 12 months is anything to go by Israel can do what ever they want. They have had many warning from America now and each one has been ignored and they have escalated each time yet the Western, mainly American, arms shipments have continued. I guess they called US bluff and knew they would do fuck all.
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Post by Syrette on Oct 12, 2024 13:44:36 GMT
If they're not careful, Biden will give them a stern talking to.
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Post by simple on Oct 12, 2024 17:29:35 GMT
It’d be interesting to know what the rules of engagement are because Israel can (and probably will) destroy any UN peacekeeper position it wants but the peacekeepers are soldiers from foreign countries - at what point in receiving direct fire (like they are now) are they permitted to fight back?
I know the Israel i government hates the UN because it keeps telling them that killing tens of thousands of innocent civilians is wrong but surely even someone as bloodthirsty as Netanyahu knows this might be pushing his luck.
I guess he’s lucky its an election year in the US and both candidates will bend over backwards to write him a blank cheque.
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rftp
New Member
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Post by rftp on Oct 12, 2024 17:47:54 GMT
They're allowed to act in self defence or in defence of their mandate.
That rather presumes they're given the opportunity, of course.
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Post by simple on Oct 12, 2024 18:01:16 GMT
I imagine the Americans have given the IDF significantly better tech than an Irish peacekeeper observer mission will be carrying
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rftp
New Member
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Post by rftp on Oct 12, 2024 18:08:25 GMT
They'll be properly equipped. There's just not much you can do when a tank opens fire on your observation post.
Crossfire at least is believably accidental.
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Post by skalpadda on Oct 13, 2024 11:06:35 GMT
These are observers, and even UN peacekeeping forces are frequently underequipped and too poorly supported for serious fighting and/or have orders not to stand their ground.
Nordbat 2 (the Nordic peacekeepers in Yugoslavia) brought heavy kit and took a "try us, motherfuckers" stance even when outgunned. They'd force roadblocks, get between soldiers and civilians and refuse to budge. They were unusually liberal with returning fire as well (the Danish tank company in particular had no chill whatsoever). So they can in theory defend themselves and do what's needed for their mission.
But Israel massively outguns everyone and doesn't give a fuck, nor do they have to as long as they have the backing (tacit our otherwise) of the US and other western countries. Israel considers the Irish in particular to be terrorist sympathisers, so probably wouldn't have any major qualms about accidentally bombing an observation post or two.
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Post by peacemaker on Oct 13, 2024 15:46:10 GMT
Latest on bbc saying early hours this morning an Israeli tank blew up the entrance to a UN compound and forces entered demanding the facility turn out all of its lights. The israeli forces left 45 mins later after UN troops liaised with the their higher ups.
Later on today Israel repeated their earlier demand that all 10,000 UN peacekeepers leave immediately. Looking at photos of each site they’ve attacked in the passed two days it can’t even be argued it was mistakes as each site is clearly marked as UN peace keepers.
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Post by simple on Oct 13, 2024 17:47:02 GMT
Netanyahu is really at Putin levels of zero shit giving right now and he’s almost certainly correct that he’s untouchable at the moment. He could wipe those observer posts out completely and so long as he didn’t literally take the nuclear option no one will do anything to stop him.
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Post by Chopsen on Oct 13, 2024 17:54:06 GMT
Pretty much. It shows just what a load of old nonsense the idea of "international law" is.
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Post by grizzly on Oct 13, 2024 18:11:27 GMT
These are observers, and even UN peacekeeping forces are frequently underequipped and too poorly supported for serious fighting and/or have orders not to stand their ground.
Nordbat 2 (the Nordic peacekeepers in Yugoslavia) brought heavy kit and took a "try us, motherfuckers" stance even when outgunned. They'd force roadblocks, get between soldiers and civilians and refuse to budge. They were unusually liberal with returning fire as well (the Danish tank company in particular had no chill whatsoever). So they can in theory defend themselves and do what's needed for their mission.
But Israel massively outguns everyone and doesn't give a fuck, nor do they have to as long as they have the backing (tacit our otherwise) of the US and other western countries. Israel considers the Irish in particular to be terrorist sympathisers, so probably wouldn't have any major qualms about accidentally bombing an observation post or two.
These missions kinda count on the notion that nobody is stupid enough to attack them since that tends to carry some extreme consequences even if these missions themselves are lightly equipped but... well, it's Likud. |
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Post by skalpadda on Oct 13, 2024 20:13:17 GMT
Yeah, I only brought up Nordbat to answer the question about whether UN forces can respond to attacks with an example. The situation here is obviously very different and there's not much they can realistically do about it if Israel really wants them out of the way.
Had to read up a bit (we haven't been there for a long time), and Unifil hasn't shrunk as much as I thought it had. On paper it has a broad mandate to act, but it doesn't seem to be set up with the organisation or have the will/backing to accomplish much beyond observation and aid work.
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Post by grizzly on Oct 14, 2024 13:05:44 GMT
Yeah, I only brought up Nordbat to answer the question about whether UN forces can respond to attacks with an example.
That's fair, though Nordbat is also considered to have gone far beyond their mandate (and UN ROE) at the time. It's only with hindsight that Nordbat's conduct was proven to be the correct one, given what happened to Dutchbat.
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Post by skalpadda on Oct 14, 2024 15:05:00 GMT
Hard to seriously argue they went beyond their mandate.
§5 defined the mission as:
And not so much breaking the RoE per se, but putting themselves in too many situations where they had to act in self-defence by doing what they were there to do.
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Post by peacemaker on Oct 16, 2024 17:45:54 GMT
I’ve no idea how the Ukraine conflict will end. I was just reading on the bbc Zelensky’s victory plan. I just can’t see it happening as he is saying peace is only possible if they don’t give up any land, join nato and continuing their advance into Russia.
It might have had a slight chance if China etc weren’t supplying Russia but they are and the west keep supplying Ukraine. Could be a very very long war.
Obviously immediately Russia released their reaction saying Kyiv needs to sober up before making any more plans.
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zephro
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Post by zephro on Oct 16, 2024 21:19:53 GMT
It's a bargaining position. You never enter into something admitting you'll give up X.
Though in fairness Ukraine has no reason to ever admit it isn't their sovereign territory. What is most likely is some Korea esque system of a DMZ and both parties claiming it's their territory. But the killing stopped. De jure it is yours but de facto there's no way to make that true.
See also various places Israel occupies since the war in the 70s like the Golan Heights.
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X201
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Post by X201 on Oct 16, 2024 21:54:16 GMT
They also need to to be able to manoeuvre in the future. You can’t join NATO if you have an ongoing border dispute.
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zephro
Junior Member
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Post by zephro on Oct 16, 2024 23:15:09 GMT
Yeah but there are likely ways around that. They could not be a member of NATO but NATO signs a self defence treaty whereby if Russia violates the line of the ceasefire then it would be trigger "something". Like North vs South Korea again, both sides claim they own the other side but there's a bunch of treaties in place where if the North invaded the South it would trigger a massive response from South Korea's allies. So nothing has happened in 70 years.
Genuinely I think it's going to end up like a Korea situation. Both sides tied up in alliances waiting for the other side to collapse. Ukraine could still claim sovereignty over the other side of a DMZ and just wait out Putin dying and Russia going to shit. Though also might never happen and 70 years later Ukraine remains an ally and country wired in to the global market. With the occupied territory slowly deteriorating.
It's shit. I'd rather Ukraine just "won" in the sense of going back to the previous recognised borders. But it doesn't seem like either side will ever be able to force the matter.
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rftp
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Post by rftp on Oct 17, 2024 6:24:49 GMT
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Post by simple on Oct 17, 2024 7:14:48 GMT
Haven’t the Saudis been busy hammering the Houthis with US/British backing for about a decade?
There’s even a Suranne Jones drama about it
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rftp
New Member
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Post by rftp on Oct 17, 2024 8:17:05 GMT
Yes. It's part of the proxy war between Iran and Saudi.
The Houthis have recently been attacking shipping in the region, so there has been carrier/plane activities in response.
B2s flying from the US to bomb supposedly secure weapons sites is a bit of a step up, though.
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apollo
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Post by apollo on Oct 17, 2024 17:48:12 GMT
I’ve no idea how the Ukraine conflict will end. I was just reading on the bbc Zelensky’s victory plan. I just can’t see it happening as he is saying peace is only possible if they don’t give up any land, join nato and continuing their advance into Russia. It might have had a slight chance if China etc weren’t supplying Russia but they are and the west keep supplying Ukraine. Could be a very very long war. Obviously immediately Russia released their reaction saying Kyiv needs to sober up before making any more plans. thats quite ironic russia telling anyone else to sober up |
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MolarAm🔵
Full Member
Bad at games
Posts: 6,866
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Post by MolarAm🔵 on Oct 17, 2024 20:59:50 GMT
THE HAMAS LEADER IS DEAD
Well thank fuck, that means the war is over and everything is going to be ok now. Peace from here on out!
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cubby
Full Member
doesn't get subtext
Posts: 6,394
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Post by cubby on Oct 17, 2024 21:53:51 GMT
Hey it worked when they shot jfk didn't it?
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Frog
Full Member
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Post by Frog on Oct 18, 2024 6:39:52 GMT
Who killed him Cubby, you seem to know too much.
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Aunty Treats
Junior Member
Delivering tasty treats to the townsfolk
Posts: 1,053
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Post by Aunty Treats on Oct 18, 2024 9:01:44 GMT
He traveled back in time and shot himself
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Post by Jambowayoh on Oct 18, 2024 14:15:47 GMT
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Post by Whizzo on Oct 18, 2024 15:45:24 GMT
I've got an idea for them, stop invading your neighbours and getting your younger people killed, it's a radical idea I know.
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