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Post by Whizzo on Jul 5, 2024 1:59:42 GMT
Starmer wins his seat, surprising stuff.
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zephro
Junior Member
Posts: 2,856
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Post by zephro on Jul 5, 2024 2:01:04 GMT
Yeah but we get to enjoy the Monster Raving Loony Party and Elmo
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Post by rawshark on Jul 5, 2024 2:01:12 GMT
Keir’s wife is quite fit.
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Onny
Junior Member
Posts: 1,137
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Post by Onny on Jul 5, 2024 2:01:36 GMT
Welcome to the UK, where our future prime minister is giving a victory speech next to Elmo.
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otto
New Member
Posts: 845
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Post by otto on Jul 5, 2024 2:02:20 GMT
From memory the projected seats is basically a singular statistical model. Based on lots of data like the % graduates, % of parents, % of retired people etc. etc. The exit poll actually comes in around 9ish, the statistical model does its thing and the predictions pop up around 9:30 so long as you've signed your NDA. It's based on like a quarter of seats? Then as the night goes on, actual real data starts to come in, that all just plugs in to the statistical model. But is clearly better quality data than the original exit poll so overrides it. Then the projected seats update. It used to be once an hour. Anyway it probably turns out the Reform vote is incredibly inefficient. They've gained loads in Red Wall Labour strong holds they can't possibly win. Marginal seats or leafy ones in the South, they've underperformed the original Exit Poll. On the BBC they’re still showing the initial exit poll unchanged
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zephro
Junior Member
Posts: 2,856
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Post by zephro on Jul 5, 2024 2:02:23 GMT
Welcome to the UK, where our future prime minister is giving a victory speech next to Elmo. Works for me as an advert for our democracy.
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Post by Danno on Jul 5, 2024 2:02:49 GMT
Welcome to the UK, where our future prime minister is giving a victory speech next to Elmo. And he knows it
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Post by rawshark on Jul 5, 2024 2:03:02 GMT
You guys have been lovely. A dream. But I’m off to bed. My partner needs sleepy farts.
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minimatt
Junior Member
would you like us to assign someone to butter your muffin?
Posts: 1,592
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Post by minimatt on Jul 5, 2024 2:03:43 GMT
Cheltenham lib dem gain Alex chalk gone, I fucking hate him, his "I'm one of the good Tories" schtick while giving legal cover for the most illegal immoral actions
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Onny
Junior Member
Posts: 1,137
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Post by Onny on Jul 5, 2024 2:04:00 GMT
Welcome to the UK, where our future prime minister is giving a victory speech next to Elmo. Works for me as an advert for our democracy. Yeah I wouldn’t have it any other way.
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Post by Bill in the rain on Jul 5, 2024 2:04:02 GMT
Reform getting 18% of the vote is worrying. Though the fact they've gotten it almost entirely from the Tories means it is unclear how much of it is heartfelt, and how much is just a fuck you to the Tories that would otherwise have gone to Labour/LibDems. A lot of those people will probably drift back to the Tories.
It is always weird looking at the vote share vs seats under our system. I think Labour's vote share only went up 1%, but look at their number of seats! Reform vote share only 1% behind the Tories. Reform having double the vote share of the Lib Dems, and Green having basically the same vote share as the Lib Dems. Yet the lib dems have 10x more seats. Etc..
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zephro
Junior Member
Posts: 2,856
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Post by zephro on Jul 5, 2024 2:04:08 GMT
From memory the projected seats is basically a singular statistical model. Based on lots of data like the % graduates, % of parents, % of retired people etc. etc. The exit poll actually comes in around 9ish, the statistical model does its thing and the predictions pop up around 9:30 so long as you've signed your NDA. It's based on like a quarter of seats? Then as the night goes on, actual real data starts to come in, that all just plugs in to the statistical model. But is clearly better quality data than the original exit poll so overrides it. Then the projected seats update. It used to be once an hour. Anyway it probably turns out the Reform vote is incredibly inefficient. They've gained loads in Red Wall Labour strong holds they can't possibly win. Marginal seats or leafy ones in the South, they've underperformed the original Exit Poll. On the BBC they’re still showing the initial exit poll unchanged I left a few years ago and the last GE I did was 2019, so maybe it's not every hour ¬_¬ If the website is behind TV I will send someone a shitty message.
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Post by starchildhypocrethes on Jul 5, 2024 2:04:31 GMT
I love the fact that at 3am I can head off to bed and the Tories still haven’t reached double figures.
Glorious.
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Post by rawshark on Jul 5, 2024 2:04:31 GMT
But also, why Elmo?
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Onny
Junior Member
Posts: 1,137
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Post by Onny on Jul 5, 2024 2:04:35 GMT
You guys have been lovely. A dream. But I’m off to bed. My partner needs sleepy farts. Godspeed sir. Godspeed.
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Post by Danno on Jul 5, 2024 2:05:32 GMT
I mean fuck if I could be that coherent at 3am I'd vote for me and then shoot myself in the face if I didn't mean it
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Post by Danno on Jul 5, 2024 2:06:49 GMT
You guys have been lovely. A dream. But I’m off to bed. My partner needs sleepy farts. Godspeed sir. Godspeed. parp
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X201
Junior Member
Posts: 4,883
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Post by X201 on Jul 5, 2024 2:07:08 GMT
Because we’ve got other jokes like Farage
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Onny
Junior Member
Posts: 1,137
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Post by Onny on Jul 5, 2024 2:07:28 GMT
SCHAPPS
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minimatt
Junior Member
would you like us to assign someone to butter your muffin?
Posts: 1,592
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Post by minimatt on Jul 5, 2024 2:07:55 GMT
HAT
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zephro
Junior Member
Posts: 2,856
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Post by zephro on Jul 5, 2024 2:08:00 GMT
Works for me as an advert for our democracy. Yeah I wouldn’t have it any other way. I'm also enjoying the random collection of hats our local mayors wear.
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X201
Junior Member
Posts: 4,883
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Post by X201 on Jul 5, 2024 2:08:07 GMT
Are big feathery hats on trend for Returning Officers at the mo?
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Post by Danno on Jul 5, 2024 2:08:11 GMT
Shapps
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Post by rawshark on Jul 5, 2024 2:08:16 GMT
Oh crap I’ve got work tomorrow.
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zephro
Junior Member
Posts: 2,856
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Post by zephro on Jul 5, 2024 2:08:41 GMT
SHAPPS IS FUCKED!
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Post by Danno on Jul 5, 2024 2:08:46 GMT
Omg so much PIMP
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minimatt
Junior Member
would you like us to assign someone to butter your muffin?
Posts: 1,592
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Post by minimatt on Jul 5, 2024 2:08:58 GMT
haha shapps fuck off
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Onny
Junior Member
Posts: 1,137
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Post by Onny on Jul 5, 2024 2:08:58 GMT
YES SCHAPPS
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otto
New Member
Posts: 845
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Post by otto on Jul 5, 2024 2:08:58 GMT
Were you up for Shapps? Yes I fucking was
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Post by Whizzo on Jul 5, 2024 2:09:00 GMT
Grant Shapps (or one of his aliases) has been Portilloed.
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