|
Post by Whizzo on Jul 5, 2024 1:40:04 GMT
Exit poll prediction has been changed, Reform now down to possibly 9.
Keep going lower.
|
|
|
Post by Danno on Jul 5, 2024 1:41:03 GMT
Fucking yes! Fuck off Galloway. Also more election cat for minimattHey me too
|
|
otto
New Member
Posts: 845
|
Post by otto on Jul 5, 2024 1:41:18 GMT
Punchy Kinnock is the best Kinnock
|
|
|
Post by Danno on Jul 5, 2024 1:41:24 GMT
Fucking north London elite
|
|
Onny
Junior Member
Posts: 1,137
|
Post by Onny on Jul 5, 2024 1:42:23 GMT
Punchy Kinnock is the best Kinnock He’s been the best pundit they’ve had on by far.
|
|
|
Post by Whizzo on Jul 5, 2024 1:42:26 GMT
Ed Davey survives to bungee jump again.
|
|
Onny
Junior Member
Posts: 1,137
|
Post by Onny on Jul 5, 2024 1:43:26 GMT
It would be good if they gave a little note of how the actual result measured up against the exit poll.
|
|
|
Post by Danno on Jul 5, 2024 1:44:05 GMT
The podium is going to open into a shark tank any second
|
|
|
Post by Danno on Jul 5, 2024 1:45:23 GMT
Dunno why they've got Walthamstow in the top right, Stella ain't going anywhere
|
|
|
Post by Bill in the rain on Jul 5, 2024 1:45:34 GMT
Exit poll prediction has been changed, Reform now down to possibly 9. Keep going lower. Did they start on 13, or something higher? /justwokeup
|
|
|
Post by rawshark on Jul 5, 2024 1:45:36 GMT
The LD campaign has reminded me of Eric Cartman. And that’s all. I voted for them.
|
|
X201
Junior Member
Posts: 4,883
|
Post by X201 on Jul 5, 2024 1:45:51 GMT
Davey speech “… people angry at the filthy waste being pumped onto our beaches” Editor at BBC picks that exact moment to put Farage up on split screen 😆
|
|
Onny
Junior Member
Posts: 1,137
|
Post by Onny on Jul 5, 2024 1:46:13 GMT
Exit poll prediction has been changed, Reform now down to possibly 9. Keep going lower. Did they start on 13, or something higher? /justwokeup Yeah they started on 13
|
|
zephro
Junior Member
Posts: 2,856
|
Post by zephro on Jul 5, 2024 1:46:30 GMT
It would be good if they gave a little note of how the actual result measured up against the exit poll. Having worked on this, the exit poll actually updates itself over the course of the night. Well the predicted seats do anyway.
|
|
|
Post by Danno on Jul 5, 2024 1:47:46 GMT
Exit poll prediction has been changed, Reform now down to possibly 9. Keep going lower. Did they start on 13, or something higher? /justwokeup Yeah 13 seats, but they've been coming second a lot. Definitely grabbing the vile cunt vote with all of their grubby digits
|
|
|
Post by starchildhypocrethes on Jul 5, 2024 1:49:55 GMT
Watching these Labour gains just keep pumping in is kinda wild.
This feels nice.
|
|
|
Post by Bill in the rain on Jul 5, 2024 1:50:28 GMT
- BBC Old Poll Guy
Surely this assumes that all the Reform voters would have voted Conservative, whereas a lot of them are probably disaffected voters who might have voted Labour or other party in protest if Reform wasn't there.
|
|
|
Post by rawshark on Jul 5, 2024 1:51:29 GMT
Tempered by the percentage of Reform votes.
Farage will be announced soon. Bleh.
|
|
|
Post by Danno on Jul 5, 2024 1:52:49 GMT
Yeah I can't hack this as a bald cunt. Need a hair transplant for so many reasons or I'm just going to be tagged reform
|
|
Onny
Junior Member
Posts: 1,137
|
Post by Onny on Jul 5, 2024 1:53:46 GMT
Kinnock is a national treasure.
|
|
zephro
Junior Member
Posts: 2,856
|
Post by zephro on Jul 5, 2024 1:54:03 GMT
- BBC Old Poll Guy Surely this assumes that all the Reform voters would have voted Conservative, whereas a lot of them are probably disaffected voters who might have voted Labour or other party in protest if Reform wasn't there. Yes. It's a dangerous assumption that them both being right wing would do this. In fact a lot of them are doing a gut instinct "FUCK THE GOVERNMENT" thing so are unlikely to vote for the Tories if Reform weren't standing.
|
|
|
Post by Danno on Jul 5, 2024 1:54:18 GMT
Rich Holden lol
|
|
Onny
Junior Member
Posts: 1,137
|
Post by Onny on Jul 5, 2024 1:54:47 GMT
Every one of Farage’s entourage looks like a prime cunt.
|
|
|
Post by Danno on Jul 5, 2024 1:55:45 GMT
Oh fuck he's got Clacton hasn't he
|
|
Onny
Junior Member
Posts: 1,137
|
Post by Onny on Jul 5, 2024 1:56:45 GMT
Sadly.
|
|
X201
Junior Member
Posts: 4,883
|
Post by X201 on Jul 5, 2024 1:56:46 GMT
Yeah I can't hack this as a bald cunt. Need a hair transplant for so many reasons or I'm just going to be tagged reform I like it actually. Tories and Reform think I’m one of them and then after they’ve launched I get to point out that I’m descended from immigrants 😁 I know it was 500 years ago, but there’s no need to tell them that and spoil the fun 😆
|
|
zephro
Junior Member
Posts: 2,856
|
Post by zephro on Jul 5, 2024 1:57:30 GMT
From memory the projected seats is basically a singular statistical model. Based on lots of data like the % graduates, % of parents, % of retired people etc. etc.
The exit poll actually comes in around 9ish, the statistical model does its thing and the predictions pop up around 9:30 so long as you've signed your NDA. It's based on like a quarter of seats?
Then as the night goes on, actual real data starts to come in, that all just plugs in to the statistical model. But is clearly better quality data than the original exit poll so overrides it. Then the projected seats update. It used to be once an hour.
Anyway it probably turns out the Reform vote is incredibly inefficient. They've gained loads in Red Wall Labour strong holds they can't possibly win. Marginal seats or leafy ones in the South, they've underperformed the original Exit Poll.
|
|
|
Post by Danno on Jul 5, 2024 1:57:39 GMT
"One of my best friends is black"
|
|
Onny
Junior Member
Posts: 1,137
|
Post by Onny on Jul 5, 2024 1:58:00 GMT
Glol at this dude
|
|
|
Post by Danno on Jul 5, 2024 1:58:44 GMT
"I think"
|
|