geefe
Full Member
Short for Zangief
Posts: 8,323
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Post by geefe on Feb 16, 2024 11:40:22 GMT
55 down to 80 in 4 years is fucking insane. 30% drop before they even get to a GE.
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Post by Whizzo on Feb 16, 2024 11:42:30 GMT
Mogg and the other Tory fuckwits all seem to think that Reform voters are all ex-Tories as well, it's not true a good chunk of them are ex-Labour, just because they voted Reform they weren't going to vote Conservative if they weren't there.
I still don't even know what platform Reform are fighting on other than being absolute cunts, oh, that is their platform.
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mcmonkeyplc
Junior Member
General Martok Qapla!
Posts: 3,017
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Post by mcmonkeyplc on Feb 16, 2024 11:56:25 GMT
Reform: The existing blue wearing cunts are not cunty enough. We are ultra cunts, vote light blue for the cunts you really want.
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Post by Saul1138 on Feb 16, 2024 11:59:19 GMT
Once again this shows how much the country doesn't want an election and just wants Rishi to get on with the job. Will he get Brexit done? Or can they fuck off? Though I voted Labour, it was tactical. I feel my vote was wasted. My one vote for the Greens wouldn’t have changed the result from 3.4%. But it wouldn’t have changed the end result either. FPTP is fucking undemocratic. I am 52, and my voice has heard or recognised. And these by elections matter fuck all. There have been low turn outs. Do you think the Tory scum will stay away come a real election?
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Bongo Heracles
Junior Member
Technically illegal to ride on public land
Posts: 4,378
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Post by Bongo Heracles on Feb 16, 2024 12:15:59 GMT
Mogg and the other Tory fuckwits all seem to think that Reform voters are all ex-Tories As the GB News fiasco showed, this is actually pretty good. They are going to waste time and resources trying to woo them and they don’t give a shit.
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Post by Vandelay on Feb 16, 2024 12:17:59 GMT
For those worrying about turnout saying anything, all it says is turnout for by-elections is shit. Guardian posted the figures for the last couple of years. The average of those is 37.9%. The turnouts for yesterday were 38% and 37.1%, so pretty much bang on the average and what should have been expected.
Obviously, it is further example of a population complete unengaged with politics (that we have had for a very long time - my highly scientific example of this is that you can pretty much guarantee that politicians will always score well - as in low - on Pointless). It doesn't mean that suddenly a completely different result will happen when everyone (or about 60-70% of people) comes out for a general election.
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Post by Whizzo on Feb 16, 2024 12:32:50 GMT
Be interesting to see the numbers of those turned away from voting for not having ID and how many didn't return. The gerrymandering the Tories did worked against them in prior elections.
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zephro
Junior Member
Posts: 2,857
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Post by zephro on Feb 16, 2024 12:44:10 GMT
the message the twats will take from overnight results will undoubtedly be " we need to move further to the right to counter threat from reform" rather than " we need move back to the centre to counter threat from labour" 2nd message will be " we need more austerity to fund tax cuts for rich to get us out of recession" rather than " austerity to get us out of last recession is why we're in the shit now" Importantly it's impossible to do both. So... The Thick of It as ever has the perfect quote. hipsterttoi.tumblr.com/post/51038330891
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cubby
Full Member
doesn't get subtext
Posts: 6,117
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Post by cubby on Feb 16, 2024 13:21:25 GMT
It’s delightful to see the tories have to deal with something every other party has to cope with at every election. Welcome to FPTP, dickheads. Imagine the scenes when the tories suddenly become in favour of PR.
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zephro
Junior Member
Posts: 2,857
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Post by zephro on Feb 16, 2024 13:31:02 GMT
Be interesting to see the numbers of those turned away from voting for not having ID and how many didn't return. The gerrymandering the Tories did worked against them in prior elections. It's just an educated guess but it ought to be lower as a % than during other elections. By-elections have low turnout mostly because only the engaged/angry bother turning up, they're also more likely to know they need ID.
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Post by Bill in the rain on Feb 16, 2024 13:32:14 GMT
Yes Rishi, we know, that's what we want. I must admit to being a bit confuses when I saw that. I get the impression that Rishi has spent too long in the house of commons / tory press bubble bleating about 'captain hindsight' etc... and he's drunk his own coolaid to the point where he thinks ' be careful! If I don't in then the boogeyman Starmer might get you!' is going to work.
It's not super great popularity for Starmer, but it's basically double Sunak's
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X201
Junior Member
Posts: 4,886
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Post by X201 on Feb 16, 2024 13:34:06 GMT
Perhaps he may swing the public if he displays great fridge hiding skills on the election trail
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Post by stuz359 on Feb 16, 2024 13:38:19 GMT
Is Sunak's plan to destroy the Tory party? He keeps saying the 'plan' is working. He keeps saying the Labour party has 'no plan' (to destroy the Tory party), so he's kind of right, if you look at it that way.
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Post by Reviewer on Feb 16, 2024 13:44:41 GMT
He doesn’t have the vision, political ability or support from his party to do anything else. No one with the shit MPs he has would achieve anything anyway.
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zephro
Junior Member
Posts: 2,857
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Post by zephro on Feb 16, 2024 13:59:35 GMT
It's not super great popularity for Starmer, but it's basically double Sunak's [/div][/quote] . It doesn't matter as you just have to beat the other cunt. Also it's really rare for British politicians to have net favourability. We generally despise our politicians or don't care. Boris was only high 30s with high 40s disliking him during the 2019 election. Just happens Corbyn was negative 50. PMs, specifically after winning their first election get net positive usually but that's about it.
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Post by Whizzo on Feb 16, 2024 14:02:34 GMT
Sunak is the captain of a ship that's holed below the waterline and the pumps have failed, he may be steadfast on the bridge but the vessel is going to go under no matter how much he blusters. The trouble is he's taking us under with him.
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Post by Whizzo on Feb 16, 2024 14:49:34 GMT
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Post by The12thMonkey on Feb 16, 2024 15:55:22 GMT
I guess there's only so many times even Marina can say "look at these cunts? See how cunt-like they are."
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Post by Chopsen on Feb 16, 2024 18:15:46 GMT
I know it goes against the terms of my membership of the socially progressive gen x zeitgeist, but really I have an irrational dislike of Marina Hyde. All a bit cringe and obvious.
Anyway. I still think things will be tighter in a GE. Reform are the home of the disaffected Tories, and by-elections (along with local elections) are the standard forum to express a protest vote. When it comes to GE, I think a lot of ex-Tory voting Reform supporters in the polls will come home and vote Tory. Because the only thing they hate more than the current Conservative government is a Labour government.
If add reform + tory voters in the age > 60 group in national polling, they outnumber labour votes on its own, and that's the age group that votes.
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zephro
Junior Member
Posts: 2,857
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Post by zephro on Feb 16, 2024 18:22:56 GMT
Polls always tighten before an election and by-elections are always a bit extreme. But replicating yesterday's swing would leave the Tories with 4 MPs. It's not tightening to even a hung parliament unless something stupid happens.
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Post by Chopsen on Feb 16, 2024 18:30:58 GMT
Yesterday's swing was an edge case tho. You've got the background polling being poor for the tories, *and* you've got a by-election where the person who is being removed in disgrace putting his own girlfriend forward as his preferred option. It was the most piss-taking hubris imaginable.
Things that are inevitable:
1. New boundaries given tories an advantage 2. reform voters being scarred of labour winning 3. general tendency for things to tighten
things that can happen:
1. Manifestos containing something the media latch on to (remember May's dementia tax?) 2. general attrition to popular opinion (leads never persist) 3. reform formally agreeing not to stand in marginals against tories at risk (in exchange for policy shift) 4. SNP sorting their shit out in Scotland and attracting votes back from Labour
To be clear, I'm not saying that Labour are likely to lose, but I genuinely think the risks of at least a minority Labour government are being understated.
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Post by Chopsen on Feb 16, 2024 18:40:37 GMT
Fuck it. Calling it now. I've put £20 on "no overall majority for the next general election"
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Post by technoish on Feb 16, 2024 18:59:41 GMT
Reform voters are not all Tories.
Actual Reform voting numbers at these by elections are below what they are polling at (which is the opposite of what UKIP managed).
People really are fed up, and Starmer is no Corbyn.
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Post by Reviewer on Feb 16, 2024 19:05:28 GMT
Every reform voter I hear sounds as thick as mince, racist and absolutely hate the tories. I don’t think many of them will bottle it and vote Tory to stop Labour.
If they hold firm then that majority for Labour could be huge.
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apollo
Junior Member
Posts: 1,502
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Post by apollo on Feb 16, 2024 19:08:26 GMT
There was some reform cunt on Good Morning Britain this morning, utter turd of a person. Acting like he is on the public's side
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Post by stuz359 on Feb 16, 2024 22:26:38 GMT
I had an interesting thought, and that means I'm going to share it with you. Isn't that exciting?
This goes back to the Greek crisis.
To cut a long story short, what actually happened was that the ECB lent the Greek state about £200bn in loans that it didn't want. From that, £27bn stayed in Greece, the rest was funnelled back to the French and German banks. It was immoral and stupid.
I know a few of you are familiar with the work of Gary Stephenson. So I will say his analysis is largely correct.
Furlough, was essentially a wealth transfer from people who worked from incomes to the wealthy.
We basically underwrote the incomes of the 1% again, to 'save' the economy. All the Furlough money we printed, went to the 1%.
But immigrants.
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Post by Reviewer on Feb 16, 2024 23:17:08 GMT
Not sure furlough went to the wealthy. It went to a few of them but they’re the minority in that one.
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Post by stuz359 on Feb 16, 2024 23:23:32 GMT
Not sure furlough went to the wealthy. It went to a few of them but they’re the minority in that one. That was kind of the point of what I posted. It didn't go directly to the wealthy, but it was transferred to them because the rest of us paid it, from Furlough money.
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cubby
Full Member
doesn't get subtext
Posts: 6,117
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Post by cubby on Feb 16, 2024 23:37:10 GMT
Furlough was one of the first things to be stopped during the pandemic measures, if it was a measure that mostly went to the wealthy it would have gone on way longer, like all the contracts they kept signing to their mates which carried on for years.
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Post by Dougs on Feb 16, 2024 23:50:44 GMT
Yesterday's swing was an edge case tho. You've got the background polling being poor for the tories, *and* you've got a by-election where the person who is being removed in disgrace putting his own girlfriend forward as his preferred option. It was the most piss-taking hubris imaginable. Things that are inevitable: 1. New boundaries given tories an advantage 2. reform voters being scarred of labour winning 3. general tendency for things to tighten things that can happen: 1. Manifestos containing something the media latch on to (remember May's dementia tax?) 2. general attrition to popular opinion (leads never persist) 3. reform formally agreeing not to stand in marginals against tories at risk (in exchange for policy shift) 4. SNP sorting their shit out in Scotland and attracting votes back from Labour To be clear, I'm not saying that Labour are likely to lose, but I genuinely think the risks of at least a minority Labour government are being understated. Largely agree with this, but I don't think it'll be enough for the Tories. It'll be closer than expected though I think. Probably a 40 seat majority at least imo...
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