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Post by elstoof on Jan 3, 2024 23:15:54 GMT
he loves the sports, hugely enthusiastic about winning in the sports games
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Post by Danno on Jan 4, 2024 10:47:43 GMT
....but I heard Stockton is a shithole
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Post by manfromdelmonte on Jan 4, 2024 11:18:22 GMT
You certainly said that, cleverly.
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Post by elstoof on Jan 4, 2024 12:46:36 GMT
Ugh, second half of the year for an election according to the Dickhead in chief
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Post by dfunked on Jan 4, 2024 12:57:00 GMT
July 1st hopefully. This shower of cunts can't be gone soon enough!
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Rich
Junior Member
Posts: 1,993 
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Post by Rich on Jan 4, 2024 12:59:15 GMT
Maximising the amount of damage/traps/dodgy deals etc they can get in.
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Post by Trowel 🏴 on Jan 4, 2024 13:17:58 GMT
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Post by Whizzo on Jan 4, 2024 13:20:20 GMT
A November election would be ridiculous, the country wants one now and the Tories are likely to get utterly wrecked in the May local elections so they'll not have recovered from that.
Sunak continues to be utterly shit at politics, just fuck off now!
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Post by Dougs on Jan 4, 2024 13:22:20 GMT
Still think May.
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Post by Whizzo on Jan 4, 2024 13:30:20 GMT
Someone should ask Sunak this.
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Ulythium
Full Member
Lily-livered
Posts: 7,133
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Post by Ulythium on Jan 4, 2024 13:31:23 GMT
I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Tories ended up hanging on until this time next year, although who'd be in the hot seat if they were to leave it that long is anyone's guess.
Sunak apparently has "lots" that he wants to "get on with", hence his refusal to call an election in May; to be fair, all those kickbacks to Tory donors won't arrange themselves.
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Post by gibroon on Jan 4, 2024 13:32:19 GMT
I still think Sunak has many more privileges to give privileged cunts. Why only have 4 months of gravy train when you can have 10?
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Post by dfunked on Jan 4, 2024 13:33:18 GMT
Yeah, I'm betting on May as well.
Rish will say one thing, then someone has a quiet word and his jellyfish-esque spine quivers. He'll backpedal at some point and try to make it sound like that was the plan all along.
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Post by Whizzo on Jan 4, 2024 13:34:53 GMT
Parliament will automatically dissolve on December 17th, leaving it late really won't help them unless something absolutely extraordinary happens, maybe aliens show up, Sunak is going to constantly have the bottler/squatter narrative until he calls an election.
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Post by gibroon on Jan 4, 2024 13:42:29 GMT
Maybe Sunak will invade Rwanda to make it a safer place for misplaced refugees. People like a good war to get behind their dear leaders.
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Post by technoish on Jan 4, 2024 14:04:08 GMT
FYI there needs to be a spending review that covers at least some stuff like local government before end of November.
Doing the review before the election will concretise some fairly heavy downward spending assumptions (see what IFS say on this).
It takes a couple months at breakneck speed to do such a review, unless you do a real quickie and put off most decisions for a couple months. But that will be chaos. So I guess that's what we will get.
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Post by clemfandango on Jan 4, 2024 14:46:56 GMT
I work in election procurement. If its called late for May (i.e. a snap election), industry will struggle to fulfil the parliamentary election as it would be combined last minute with a shit ton of elections already happening around the country. Local elections, Mayoral Elections, PCC elections, GLA elections, the whole of England and Wales already have elections and work is well underway for them. Not that Sunak is bothered mind...
London would be especially hard to produce in time.
Basically if the parliamentary election is in May they need to be letting us know now.
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Post by Vandelay on Jan 4, 2024 14:52:10 GMT
May was never going to happen. Why would they go to the country when polling shows they are going to lose and lose pretty badly? There might be possibility that there would be a bump from the budget, but as most budget announcements won't actually take affect by April, the real impact on opinion wouldn't be known until a point when they would have had to announce for a May election.
June might be a possible time, but after that you have only half of July before the summer recess and then August followed by conference season in September. Most likely will be an announcement of when it will be as part of his conference speech, with it being October or November (if it's November, they would have to work around the US election, but Sunak would have his 2 years in office, that I expect he really wants).
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Post by manfromdelmonte on Jan 4, 2024 16:03:00 GMT
Because they have to have local elections in May. If they don't have a GE at the same time, then their losses in the locals will be amplified by protest votes from both the left and right. Making their chances in the GE look even worse. This will probably lead to a rebellion against Sunak in the parliamentary party and will certainly discourage party members from volunteering to canvas. The additional uncertainty will cause bond yields to rise, further worsening the outlook for the exchequer. Either Sunak is an idiot, or he's hubristically decided that the party's lack of loyalty to him has ruined his chance of making a success of his premiership and has decided to take them down with him. I'm leaning towards column A.
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Post by Dougs on Jan 4, 2024 16:05:34 GMT
Plus, turn out is always better in combined elections. And the Tories will need as many oldies out as they can. No chance as many will bother when it's pissing it down. The only thing against is cash - they need more time to raise the funds to fight every seat. Especially given the stance by Reform (at the moment...)
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apollo
Junior Member
Posts: 1,733
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Post by apollo on Jan 4, 2024 16:18:36 GMT
Either Sunak is an idiot, or he's hubristically decided that the party's lack of loyalty to him has ruined his chance of making a success of his premiership and has decided to take them down with him. I'm leaning towards column A. I think its column A and B |
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Post by Vandelay on Jan 4, 2024 16:49:22 GMT
It might be stupid choice, but they are always going to hold off and hope something comes along to make public opinion for them better. They aren't going to go to the country unless they think they can win or when they have no other option
Any speculation about May was always just wishful thinking. Any commentators with an ear in Westminster has being saying as such for a long time and speculation about an earlier election has mostly been coming from Labour.
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Bongo Heracles
Junior Member
Technically illegal to ride on public land
Posts: 4,658
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Post by Bongo Heracles on Jan 4, 2024 16:56:51 GMT
You'd think so unless they somehow think riding the wave of getting absolutely fucked at the local elections will somehow help kick off their national campaign. |
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Post by Resident Knievel on Jan 4, 2024 17:31:43 GMT
They might be hoping for a Trump win in November to give themselves a fascism bump a few days later in a UK election.
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zephro
Junior Member
Posts: 3,010
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Post by zephro on Jan 4, 2024 19:59:40 GMT
Doing it the same time as Trump seems like a terrible idea. Just all the bad blowback from everyone hating on the Republicans at the same time. The longer they leave it the more the "bottled" it narrative will take hold and the worse it will get, especially with even more people having to re-mortgage over the year. But he's also a coward so May seems unlikely. I reckon the most likely thing is he'll wake up one day, stare in the mirror and just give in. So it'll be random. I work in election procurement. If its called late for May (i.e. a snap election), industry will struggle to fulfil the parliamentary election as it would be combined last minute with a shit ton of elections already happening around the country. Local elections, Mayoral Elections, PCC elections, GLA elections, the whole of England and Wales already have elections and work is well underway for them. Not that Sunak is bothered mind... London would be especially hard to produce in time. Basically if the parliamentary election is in May they need to be letting us know now. When I worked at the Beeb I made sure the General Election code base was always warmed up and ready to go at the drop of a hat. Which may be why 2015-19 all look exactly the same... Software though. Relatively easy thing to handle. |
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Post by clemfandango on Jan 4, 2024 20:13:17 GMT
Doing it the same time as Trump seems like a terrible idea. Just all the bad blowback from everyone hating on the Republicans at the same time. The longer they leave it the more the "bottled" it narrative will take hold and the worse it will get, especially with even more people having to re-mortgage over the year. But he's also a coward so May seems unlikely. I reckon the most likely thing is he'll wake up one day, stare in the mirror and just give in. So it'll be random. I work in election procurement. If it’s called late for May (i.e. a snap election), industry will struggle to fulfil the parliamentary election as it would be combined last minute with a shit ton of elections already happening around the country. Local elections, Mayoral Elections, PCC elections, GLA elections, the whole of England and Wales already have elections and work is well underway for them. Not that Sunak is bothered mind... London would be especially hard to produce in time. Basically if the parliamentary election is in May they need to be letting us know now. When I worked at the Beeb I made sure the General Election code base was always warmed up and ready to go at the drop of a hat. Which may be why 2015-19 all look exactly the same... Software though. Relatively easy thing to handle. Try getting the government to pay for 15 million preprinted envelopes and held in stock for 70 local authorities before an election is called/scheduled. And that’s the easy bit… |
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Post by Jambowayoh on Jan 4, 2024 20:19:22 GMT
Hey c'mon guys leave Rishi alone. It's just a working assumption.
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Post by Chopsen on Jan 4, 2024 20:22:35 GMT
Budget 6th of March, include bullshit populist stuff like abolish IHT and more Help to Buy type nonsense. All uncosted and likely to be a massive pita for whoever is in power next 5 years. Nothing too extreme like Truss that will frighten the horses. Nice and sober Hunt budget, but lots of baubles on top.
Wait, see how it lands and watch the headlines and polls.
Polls good, go go go announce May GE.
Polls bad, Nov GE, which is what I always said why you saying I'm a coward?
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geefe
Full Member
Short for Zangief
Posts: 8,323
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Post by geefe on Jan 4, 2024 20:29:31 GMT
Can we trick them and all say we'd vote for them?
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Post by stuz359 on Jan 4, 2024 20:30:26 GMT
Budget 6th of March, include bullshit populist stuff like abolish IHT and more Help to Buy type nonsense. All uncosted and likely to be a massive pita for whoever is in power next 5 years. Nothing too extreme like Truss that will frighten the horses. Nice and sober Hunt budget, but lots of baubles on top.
Wait, see how it lands and watch the headlines and polls.
Polls good, go go go announce May GE.
Polls bad, Nov GE, which is what I always said why you saying I'm a coward?
I think November. They have been saving some fiscal headroom for tax cuts, March budget, give the people time to (hopefully) feel the change in their pockets and feel like they are doing better then call a general election. In addition, gives a lot of time for them to say to Labour, 'which taxes would you raise?' and every media outlet would hammer that message home for them every interview a Labour politician gave, you just know it. All bullshit of course but I think it's the electioneering bullshit they would go for. It's all about retaining power now, not any sense of public duty, because they've shown they have none. |
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