|
Post by technoish on Jun 28, 2023 15:17:22 GMT
I think people think things are bad currently, but it's mainly thru lens of inflation/cost of living and now mortgages. But the wider fundamentals really are even worse.
I may be wrong but with FPTP I don't really see labour having a huge majority, and it depends on the rump of Conservatives on whether they will go further to right / culture wars, or do some navel gazing, on what the new government can manage in a first "term". And Keir starmer isn't as likeable it seems as eg Blair, plus state of the press....
But if they even manage to start actual long term policy making on NHS, public health, social care, etc that will be a huge difference to now. (As well as some progressive tax changes to help pay for it).
A mindset shift will have a big impact on public sector workforce and morale, I have no doubt. (equally, making unrealistic promises now would backfire when having to break them straight away in office).
|
|
sport✅
Junior Member
notice me senpai
I want to claim my tits
Posts: 2,276
|
Post by sport✅ on Jun 28, 2023 17:13:25 GMT
Thanks for that techno.
Anyone got a spare noose?
|
|
Frog
Full Member
Posts: 7,053
|
Post by Frog on Jun 28, 2023 17:22:08 GMT
No sorry I only have the one and I'm wearing it.
|
|
|
Post by GigaChad Sigma. on Jun 28, 2023 17:33:27 GMT
Privitisation.
1. Take ownership of utility. 2. Take out billions in loans 3. Don't invest in any infrastructure. 4. Make millionaires and billionaires richer 5. Fail completely and get bailed out.
Bonus points if you can destroy the environment.
|
|
|
Post by nemesis on Jun 28, 2023 17:36:52 GMT
I'm reminded of the Blair and Brown documentary the BBC broadcast when they were discussing the reality of what happens once you win and get to see the size of the job. I think they'll find out it's a whole lot worse once they see the books!
As a kid I qualified for free school meals and, looking back, that was probably the best meal I got that day. We're in a right old state if we can't make that work for all the kids at school.
|
|
patrick
New Member
Ugly bag of mostly water
Posts: 756
|
Post by patrick on Jun 28, 2023 17:37:53 GMT
|
|
zephro
Junior Member
Posts: 2,857
|
Post by zephro on Jun 28, 2023 18:07:29 GMT
I think people think things are bad currently, but it's mainly thru lens of inflation/cost of living and now mortgages. But the wider fundamentals really are even worse. I may be wrong but with FPTP I don't really see labour having a huge majority, and it depends on the rump of Conservatives on whether they will go further to right / culture wars, or do some navel gazing, on what the new government can manage in a first "term". And Keir starmer isn't as likeable it seems as eg Blair, plus state of the press.... But if they even manage to start actual long term policy making on NHS, public health, social care, etc that will be a huge difference to now. (As well as some progressive tax changes to help pay for it). A mindset shift will have a big impact on public sector workforce and morale, I have no doubt. (equally, making unrealistic promises now would backfire when having to break them straight away in office). Why would FPTP stop them getting a big majority? It works both ways usually. It has the effect of only needing to beat the other cunt, and the Tories are doing extremely badly right now. Anything vaguely like current opinion polling and it'll be 100+ easily.
|
|
|
Post by technoish on Jun 28, 2023 18:21:26 GMT
Yeah, maybe you are right. I'll have to get up to speed as we get towards the election.
The Thames water stuff now, it really feels like it's all just falling apart.
|
|
Frog
Full Member
Posts: 7,053
|
Post by Frog on Jun 28, 2023 18:25:37 GMT
Probably because the Tories could ride through some of the constituencies in this country burning them down and people there would still vote for them.
|
|
|
Post by Dougs on Jun 28, 2023 18:41:41 GMT
This is it. Polls now are kind of pointless, as they are based in the here and now. Polls always narrow towards a GE (for some of the reasons above). But a 10+ lead should get a decent majority. The economic future looks too bleak to see a Con recovery that would prevent a Lab majority, but you never know.
|
|
zephro
Junior Member
Posts: 2,857
|
Post by zephro on Jun 28, 2023 18:42:02 GMT
As general rules FPTP tends to accentuate both shitness and strength, relative to some opponent. So not close elections where FPTP has done its thing just gearing it up to 11: - 2015 in Scotland, SNP got 50% of the vote and 95% of the seats (because all the other parties were being fucking useless) - 1997 Labour got 43% of the vote and and 63% of seats, Tories got 30% of the vote and 25% of seats - 2019 Labour got 32% of the vote 31% of seats, Tories got 43% of the vote and 56% of seats
Which are mostly to do with the other fuckers (Tory, Labour, or Lib Dem) falling apart.
Close elections where you actually actually need to worry about how your vote is distributed (e.g. not piling up all your votes in one place) - 2017 Labour were on 40% of the vote, 40% of the seats. Tories 42 for 48% of seats - 2010 Tories 36% for 47%, Labour 29% for 39% - 2005 Labour got 35% of votes 55% of seats Tories got 32% of votes for 30.7% of seats
Most of which went one way or another because the Lib Dems/SNP/UKIP etc. were splitting the vote unequally somewhere. But some of them came out "unfairly" in favour of Labour as well as the Tories.
It basically just rewards winners and punishes losers.
|
|
Rich
Junior Member
Posts: 1,960
|
Post by Rich on Jun 28, 2023 20:13:45 GMT
The economic future looks too bleak to see a Con recovery that would prevent a Lab majority, but you never know. It also looks so bleak it's hard to imagine Labour doing much aside from damage control for most of the first term as they start to try and unravel the disaster of the last 13 (will be 14) years. All the while the Tories and their pet journalists will be on the attack with as much self reflection as a blind mole rat gazing at a lump of coal, as well as attacks from the further left elements claiming it would be much better if they got the other guy back in charge.
|
|
|
Post by Whizzo on Jun 28, 2023 20:19:04 GMT
5 years of Labour does mean 5 years of elderly Tory supporters (fingers crossed including Murdoch and Dacre) dying off and all the evidence is they're not getting replaced by younger people.
|
|
|
Post by Dougs on Jun 28, 2023 20:28:18 GMT
Can't disagree with that Rich. Can't help but think this is going to be like turning a tanker around and it'll be sent the other way once it gets halfway around.
|
|
|
Post by stuz359 on Jun 28, 2023 21:05:19 GMT
My take, this country is fucked.
Seriously not even trying anymore. Witnessed a conversation between a young couple on the bus (I foolishly left my earbuds at work), both talking about having 'carried' in the past and various encounters and it was just horrific.
Society is breaking down, there is only so much people can take and I think it's getting to the limit (anecdotally).
Next ten years, definitely another financial crash and then a war. At least we've trained the young people for it.
|
|
geefe
Full Member
Short for Zangief
Posts: 8,323
|
Post by geefe on Jun 28, 2023 21:13:17 GMT
Good lord. And here I am, knowing my neighbours and being part of a community. Now I know there's a war coming, I'll chin it off so I don't feel so bad having to kill them.
|
|
|
Post by stuz359 on Jun 28, 2023 21:46:49 GMT
Well let's break it down, just Thames water. A company in which they have borrowed massively in a time of low or negative interest rates to borrow. So they borrowed the money, it's free money right? So they borrow to pay out dividends and do share buybacks (thus increasing share price). Interestingly, CEO bonus depends on share price, so any time CEO takes this position, they are increasing their own bonus.
Now interest rates have gone up, they can't service the debt so they're on the brink of collapse.
How many other companies/water/public service companies have done the same thing? We had Bulb not long ago. So companies leveraged up to their eyeballs suddenly facing interest rate rises collapse?
As for war, not saying we're going to start it, but there is going to be something somewhere, most likely China/USA/Taiwan.
As for communities, I said it was anecdotal and I stand by it, but it is definitely fuelling a lot of hatred and a lot of prejudice (anecdotally, one of the stories was about jumping the Kurdish).
What is absent from the conversation, is how we get from the position we are in, to a position to address these issues.
Considering a lot of the political class have been tweeting about kids identifying as cats, yeah, I don't have a lot of faith these days.
|
|
|
Post by Danno on Jun 28, 2023 22:17:29 GMT
The economic future looks too bleak to see a Con recovery that would prevent a Lab majority, but you never know. It also looks so bleak it's hard to imagine Labour doing much aside from damage control for most of the first term as they start to try and unravel the disaster of the last 13 (will be 14) years. All the while the Tories and their pet journalists will be on the attack with as much self reflection as a blind mole rat gazing at a lump of coal, as well as attacks from the further left elements claiming it would be much better if they got the other guy back in charge. I hated liking this but it's bang on. We'll have more fucking Tories in 5 years because it's 1) literally impossible to unfuck this in 4 years and 2) Labour remain too stupid to get rid of FPTP
|
|
|
Post by Trowel 🏴 on Jun 28, 2023 22:25:39 GMT
How many other companies/water/public service companies have done the same thing? See also local councils.
|
|
|
Post by anthonyuk on Jun 28, 2023 23:59:26 GMT
I'm a little more optimistic about the future.
I usually avoid the city (Manchester) like the plague, but it surprised me the other day in a good way. For all the class war and demonising of various faiths and nationalities by the government and media for literally decades, it was so nice to see (especially with the younger generation) couples of every faith, ethnicity and sex just living their lives. Nobody stared at the white guy with muslim partner and family in tow, nobody stared at the two gay men.. Just everyone living their lives how they want.
Actually gave me a little faith in humanity again.
MP's and the fat cats will always be corrupt and Chav's will always chav.
How far the west and especially the US will go to cement it's position in the world order does worry me. The cynic in me worries whether war spreading further into Europe might even be preferable to peace for the US if it meant the collapse of Russia.
WW3 aside, I think the right side of politics has gone so far and revealed itself to be so self serving this time, it'll be a while before even traditional tory voters come back to them. Hopefully this gives time for entire new generation of young socially aware voters help steer politics and public opinion in a more progressive direction as the older generation dies off.
|
|
|
Post by Whizzo on Jun 29, 2023 0:41:56 GMT
I could be completely wrong but it's very possible that the absolute worst of this country think there's more people like them than there really are because they keep being given a megaphone to blast the rest of us with their shittiness, that can't last forever.
|
|
X201
Junior Member
Posts: 4,890
|
Post by X201 on Jun 29, 2023 5:06:15 GMT
Oooh, this could be fun A Commons committee that investigated Boris Johnson over Partygate is expected to criticise his supporters on Thursday. Johnson allies to be criticised over Partygate probe www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66047342
|
|
|
Post by dfunked on Jun 29, 2023 7:58:58 GMT
I wonder if Dorries will step down with immediate effect when this comes out...
|
|
Bongo Heracles
Junior Member
Technically illegal to ride on public land
Posts: 4,386
|
Post by Bongo Heracles on Jun 29, 2023 8:31:31 GMT
She has somehow now made *not* quitting a point of principle. She threatened to quit and then immediately threatened that she wasnt quitting unless her demands were met.
She literally cant do anything right.
|
|
dogbot
Full Member
Posts: 8,738
|
Post by dogbot on Jun 29, 2023 8:41:15 GMT
Report is pretty damn serious.
|
|
Bongo Heracles
Junior Member
Technically illegal to ride on public land
Posts: 4,386
|
Post by Bongo Heracles on Jun 29, 2023 8:44:50 GMT
One of the findings has to be 'stop letting these fuckers host shows GB News'
|
|
dogbot
Full Member
Posts: 8,738
|
Post by dogbot on Jun 29, 2023 8:46:08 GMT
Unfortunately, the only recommendation is basically that the House of Commons deal with its shit, so they'll get a very minor telling off and nothing else and will be able to continue undermining the country from their positions of privilege and power.
|
|
Vortex
Full Member
Harvey Weinstein's Tattered Penis
is apparently a mangina.
Posts: 5,245
|
Post by Vortex on Jun 29, 2023 8:46:15 GMT
Good. About damned time too and I hope they get taken to the cleaners.
Dorries and Mogg need fired into the sun asafp.
|
|
Bongo Heracles
Junior Member
Technically illegal to ride on public land
Posts: 4,386
|
Post by Bongo Heracles on Jun 29, 2023 8:53:47 GMT
The galling thing is that no matter what happens, purely by virtue of having served a term as an MP, they are all set for life. There will always be some greedy parasite who wants to leverage their connections or offer a bag to spout shit about immigrants for the rest of their miserable lives.
Like Johnson. 'You cant suspend me, I quit straight into my £!m a year columnists job I can do while having a shit in the morning'. Absolutely no meaningful consequences for any of them.
|
|
|
Post by Saul1138 on Jun 29, 2023 9:23:19 GMT
Sorry I am late to this party, but after Putin was forced to reach a settlement with a paid for mercenary army, I hope a brexit benefit is we get first dibs on joining China or India’s subsequent invasion.
Also, fuck the tories, Labour and Thames Water. Burn them to the ground or nationalise them responsibly. How many of 5hese shit shows have been taken in house yet still pay dividends to shareholders?
|
|