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Post by Whizzo on Sept 27, 2021 21:22:21 GMT
Just don't mention to the anti-PR twats who was the last person to win a general election (three times in fact) for Labour otherwise they'll get really annoyed.
A lot of Labour are more interested fighting their own party than the Tories.
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Post by grizzly on Sept 27, 2021 21:30:12 GMT
Just don't mention to the anti-PR twats who was the last person to win a general election (three times in fact) for Labour otherwise they'll get really annoyed. A lot of Labour are more interested fighting their own party than the Tories.  |
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Post by Danno on Sept 27, 2021 23:27:54 GMT
Just don't mention to the anti-PR twats who was the last person to win a general election (three times in fact) for Labour otherwise they'll get really annoyed. A lot of Labour are more interested fighting their own party than the Tories. Is the slightly left of centre bomber flying over that church? |
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X201
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Post by X201 on Sept 28, 2021 8:11:56 GMT
Went out early this morning to try and get petrol. There were already queues down the main road. This is bloody bonkers.
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Bongo Heracles
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Post by Bongo Heracles on Sept 28, 2021 8:24:45 GMT
I heard a dude on the radio say most places are on a three day refill cycle so every petrol station that was wiped out, depending on when it was last filled, may take a couple of days to stock back up which, obviously, just adds to the panic.
THERES NO PETROL IN MY AREA!
Give it 24hrs
NO!
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imamazed
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Post by imamazed on Sept 28, 2021 8:25:32 GMT
Just don't mention to the anti-PR twats who was the last person to win a general election (three times in fact) for Labour otherwise they'll get really annoyed. A lot of Labour are more interested fighting their own party than the Tories. Errr, yes they won those three general elections partly because of FPTP. FPTP is good for the Labour party. Not saying it's right, virtuous, pure or otherwise, but it's routinely favoured Labour in elections and exaggerated their seat share from the vote share. I can see why the unions and (some) Labour members wouldn't want to discard it. What did the actual motion say? "PR" is quite a nebulous term. |
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Dgzter
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Post by Dgzter on Sept 28, 2021 8:39:59 GMT
Has it really, though? I mean, 'routinely favoured' in this context equates to winning 3 elections in 40+ years, likely stretching to at least half a century with the way things are going atm.
And if this style of FPTP is a good thing for the Labour party with that sort of record, what on earth is it for the Tories?
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X201
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Post by X201 on Sept 28, 2021 8:52:43 GMT
I heard a dude on the radio say most places are on a three day refill cycle so every petrol station that was wiped out, depending on when it was last filled, may take a couple of days to stock back up which, obviously, just adds to the panic. THERES NO PETROL IN MY AREA! Give it 24hrs NO! I work from home 99% of the time, It's sods law that I need to go to work this week and I haven't got anywhere near enough fuel for the 250 miles round trip and I don't fancy chancing it to try and get some on the way. |
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imamazed
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Post by imamazed on Sept 28, 2021 8:56:28 GMT
Has it really, though? I mean, 'routinely favoured' in this context equates to winning 3 elections in 40+ years, likely stretching to at least half a century with the way things are going atm. And if this style of FPTP is a good thing for the Labour party with that sort of record, what on earth is it for the Tories? Well 2019 aside it's also favoured Labour even when they lose. That is to say - their share of the vote would have been even lower if not for FPTP. If you're into psephology, look at how bad 1983 could have been for Labour with PR. Yes, FPTP does favour the Tories even more than it does Labour, at least recently. But it's a flawed game Labour can win, rather than a "better" game they can only lose. |
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Dgzter
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Post by Dgzter on Sept 28, 2021 9:12:40 GMT
Well 2019 aside it's also favoured Labour even when they lose. That is to say - their share of the vote would have been even lower if not for FPTP. If you're into psephology, look at how bad 1983 could have been for Labour with PR. Yup, I am, and I do accept that. But adding caveats such as forgetting about the absolute disaster of the most recent election, or remember that one time when we lost nearly forty years ago well it might've been ever so slightly worse, offers very little solace at the current time, I'm afraid. |
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Post by TheSaint on Sept 28, 2021 9:18:39 GMT
Their share of the vote might be lower under PR but they would be better placed to form a government with the other left/centre-left parties.
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Post by TheSaint on Sept 28, 2021 9:19:27 GMT
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Bongo Heracles
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Post by Bongo Heracles on Sept 28, 2021 9:24:36 GMT
If you consider that scotland is an SNP lock, the only way we get rid of them or at least dilute their power is with PR.
The problem is, that would involve the tories voting for christmas so, yeah....
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Dgzter
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Post by Dgzter on Sept 28, 2021 9:29:12 GMT
Interesting looking at the analysis as well. The SNP support a move to PR, even though they would stand to lose 20 (!) of their current Westminster seats under such a system. The idea being that more would actually be achievable by working/voting together with the other left/centre-left parties.
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imamazed
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Post by imamazed on Sept 28, 2021 9:37:17 GMT
Well 2019 aside it's also favoured Labour even when they lose. That is to say - their share of the vote would have been even lower if not for FPTP. If you're into psephology, look at how bad 1983 could have been for Labour with PR. Yup, I am, and I do accept that. But adding caveats such as forgetting about the absolute disaster of the most recent election, or remember that one time when we lost nearly forty years ago well it might've been ever so slightly worse, offers very little solace at the current time, I'm afraid. But I mean, 2019 is the only caveat since about 1945. So, yeh, it does hold up. But fair play - it's not particularly comforting at the moment. Frankly I think "Centre-Left" parties working together under PR is by no means guaranteed anyway. Projections don't take into account the realities of horse-trading and kingmaking, and of course the electoral system itself would have a big impact on the state of party politics and voting intention. I'm pretty neutral on the whole thing. I was actually quite in favour of AV in 2011 or whenever it was, seemed to be a conservative step in the right direction. But that was set up to fail. |
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Dgzter
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Post by Dgzter on Sept 28, 2021 9:43:12 GMT
On the subject of 1945, interestingly, I seen this comment BTL on the Guardian live blog today:
'The Conservative Party has not represented the majority of voters in any election since 1945. But they have been the Government for 46 of those 76 years.'
Is that actually correct?
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Post by Dougs on Sept 28, 2021 9:51:00 GMT
Sounds about right
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minimatt
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Post by minimatt on Sept 28, 2021 9:53:38 GMT
'The Conservative Party has not represented the majority of voters in any election since 1945. But they have been the Government for 46 of those 76 years.' Is that actually correct? Sounds correct, but then I'm pretty sure Blair/Brown didn't get a majority of voters either. Votes per MP is a dispiriting metric though. |
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Post by simple on Sept 28, 2021 9:55:52 GMT
On the subject of 1945, interestingly, I seen this comment BTL on the Guardian live blog today: 'The Conservative Party has not represented the majority of voters in any election since 1945. But they have been the Government for 46 of those 76 years.' Is that actually correct? Its likely true of every modern (post-war) government with the possible exceptions of 83 and 97 but I haven’t bothered to check them |
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Bongo Heracles
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Post by Bongo Heracles on Sept 28, 2021 10:12:32 GMT
Sounds correct, but then I'm pretty sure Blair/Brown didn't get a majority of voters either. Votes per MP is a dispiriting metric though. Yeah, our constituency is absolutely infuriating. It is, by most metrics, one of the safest tory seats in the country but the winning margin isnt actually that big its just unbelievably consistent. Every time, more or less the same winning margin which looks like it shouldnt be impossible to overturn but seemingly is |
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Post by Matt A on Sept 28, 2021 10:21:44 GMT
Mine is. When Tony Blair was in his pomp we didn't budge.
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dogbot
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Post by dogbot on Sept 28, 2021 10:25:15 GMT
Blair's 1997 win was the closest this constituency ever got to moving away from a safe Tory seat - Conservative Majority of just 1336.
Other than that, in every election since 1983, when this constituency seat was established, it has been solidly blue, with between 10k and the current 22k majority.
Bloody farmers.
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Bongo Heracles
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Post by Bongo Heracles on Sept 28, 2021 10:29:29 GMT
On that front, you would like to think the needle will shift in the next general election. |
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imamazed
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Post by imamazed on Sept 28, 2021 10:32:03 GMT
On that front, you would like to think the needle will shift in the next general election. Yes, from the Tories to the Lib Dems. Meaning that the Tories still win in those constituencies... |
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minimatt
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Post by minimatt on Sept 28, 2021 10:32:45 GMT
Best bit about EU elections was the ability to vote green & actually get some green representation rather than just dumpster all those votes. I get that it also gave ukip a voice, but Christ this fptp system where 35% of the vote gets you 100% of the power feels far from democratic
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X201
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Post by X201 on Sept 28, 2021 10:33:10 GMT
On the subject of 1945, interestingly, I seen this comment BTL on the Guardian live blog today: 'The Conservative Party has not represented the majority of voters in any election since 1945. But they have been the Government for 46 of those 76 years.' Is that actually correct? Its likely true of every modern (post-war) government with the possible exceptions of 83 and 97 but I haven’t bothered to check them Geek that I am. I checked it. 1935 was the last election where any party won >50% of the vote. Although it's not much of a claim, because it's only actually happened twice in the last 100+ years |
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imamazed
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Post by imamazed on Sept 28, 2021 10:45:11 GMT
Best bit about EU elections was the ability to vote green & actually get some green representation rather than just dumpster all those votes. I get that it also gave ukip a voice, but Christ this fptp system where 35% of the vote gets you 100% of the power feels far from democratic I mean it's all percentages. You could argue that, because of the proportional electoral system, the Greens in Scotland have much, much more power than their 1-8% of the vote deserves. PR systems aren't a panacea in that respect. Generally speaking, yes they allow a broader selection of parties voted for to wield power. But how those parties are put together is not usually a democratic process and can still disregard huge swathes of votes. There's a good argument that FPTP is the least worst option, but I suspect the 'best' options are hybrid models that become needlessly complicated. |
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dogbot
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Post by dogbot on Sept 28, 2021 10:46:06 GMT
On that front, you would like to think the needle will shift in the next general election. I'd like to think so - there's definitely mutterings about the state of things about the town, but I've just been looking at the last 20 years of results and even if you add up most of the non-tory votes, it still wouldn't topple them at all but one election. It seems likely that any shift will split the vote and give a reduced majority, but not unseat the incumbent. Unfortunately. |
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Dgzter
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Post by Dgzter on Sept 28, 2021 11:06:28 GMT
Haha you were too quick for me imamazed  I deleted that post after I re-read yours and realised that was precisely what you were pointing out. Edit: DOH! |
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Post by grey_matters on Sept 28, 2021 11:24:09 GMT
I've never heard anybody outside the UK that has argued that FPTP is the least worst option. I know we all have our internal biases based on our experiences etc but the UK's system looks like being, as close to objectively as it is possible to get in these kind of matters, the worst version of democracy of any in western Europe.
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I deleted that post after I re-read yours and realised that was precisely what you were pointing out.