|
|
Post by Vandelay on Jul 28, 2024 22:25:07 GMT
Not that surprising. She was never going to win. She isn't liked by the party and isn't particularly liked by members. I can see her scraping together the necessary 10 to enter the contest, but she wouldn't have got much more than that.
It will likely either be James Cleverly or Tom Tugendhat Vs Badenoch or Patel, depending on which one of those the relevant sides of the party back. Can't see Stride or Jenrick getting over the line to go to the membership.
|
|
|
|
Post by dfunked on Jul 29, 2024 6:36:45 GMT
Badenoch is the bookies' favourite...
I'm torn between thinking this will be awful, then remembering they're barely even the opposition any more and she'll probably steer them even closer to the rocks
|
|
cubby
Full Member
doesn't get subtext
Posts: 6,393
Member is Online
|
Post by cubby on Jul 29, 2024 6:50:47 GMT
I don't understand how anyone thinks bad enoch is a more preferable option, she's 10 times more into the culture wars bullshit that has dogged them for years.
|
|
Rich
Junior Member
Posts: 1,989 
|
Post by Rich on Jul 29, 2024 7:14:07 GMT
Tugendhat is the only vaguely sensible option, but even he has demonstrated he's willing to sell his principles for power.
The party so fractured, none of them are capable of surviving five years until the election anyway.
|
|
|
|
Post by Duffking on Jul 29, 2024 8:38:15 GMT
Badenoch would be them saying they need to win back the reform crazies rather than broadening their general appeal. Appointing a massive racist to appeal to the racists might make sense until you realise that all the racists will hate her and so will everyone else.
|
|
|
|
Post by mothercruncher on Jul 29, 2024 9:07:10 GMT
Not one of them has thought about why they lost- the cold septic conduct. And that’s brilliant because fuck them.
|
|
Bongo Heracles
Junior Member
Technically illegal to ride on public land
Posts: 4,656
Member is Online
|
Post by Bongo Heracles on Jul 29, 2024 9:12:42 GMT
It’s great. Let the stupid fucks argue for the next five years and not actually take a single minute to examine why everyone hates them.
When you’re coming out with stuff like ‘we lost because we failed to deal with the woke virus’ you truly are detached from reality.
|
|
mcmonkeyplc
Junior Member
General Martok Qapla!
Posts: 3,091
|
Post by mcmonkeyplc on Jul 29, 2024 9:22:15 GMT
Yeah don't celebrate quite yet, Labour need to actually govern and do some tangible good or the swivel eyed loons will come roaring back.
|
|
|
|
Post by Whizzo on Jul 29, 2024 9:28:45 GMT
Another 5 years and that's many more Tory supporters in the ground, they're running out of people that are prepared to vote for them.
|
|
cubby
Full Member
doesn't get subtext
Posts: 6,393
Member is Online
|
Post by cubby on Jul 29, 2024 9:41:34 GMT
I am a little (understatement) concerned about Reeves and her basically being Osborne 2.0. There's a lot of chatter about her soon making announcements about how we're going to have to delay investing in infrastructure etc because of how broke we are.
|
|
mcmonkeyplc
Junior Member
General Martok Qapla!
Posts: 3,091
|
Post by mcmonkeyplc on Jul 29, 2024 9:53:07 GMT
Another 5 years and that's many more Tory supporters in the ground, they're running out of people that are prepared to vote for them. Nope buying the demographics bit, see Republican party. They're going for the crazy fucks too and plenty of those exist. |
|
|
|
Post by Reviewer on Jul 29, 2024 10:02:59 GMT
I am a little (understatement) concerned about Reeves and her basically being Osborne 2.0. There's a lot of chatter about her soon making announcements about how we're going to have to delay investing in infrastructure etc because of how broke we are. I think that’s more looking at value for money than just getting rid of them. Things like the Stonehenge bypass should’ve been killed and completely rethought years ago. That’sa massive cost and there are much better alternatives anyway. Mostly they seem to be looking for private companies to join in, which is a good way to spread and delay costs a bit. |
|
|
|
Post by Whizzo on Jul 29, 2024 10:04:54 GMT
Well for one thing we're not America and crazy fucks over here tend to either not bother voting or vote for extremists like Reform. A sixth of Tory voters are likely to die before the next general election, according to a new analysis.
Polling company Focaldata found that the age at which the Conservatives become the most popular party is 64, compared to 42 in 2019.
In the last five years, one in every ten voters who backed the Conservatives under Boris Johnson’s leadership have died – around 1.3 million people. www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conserative-voters-age-next-general-election-b2583660.html |
|
|
|
Post by Bill in the rain on Jul 29, 2024 10:22:57 GMT
Yeah, but the population is aging rapidly, so the proportion of people over 64 is going to get bigger not smaller.
|
|
|
|
Post by drhickman1983 on Jul 29, 2024 10:31:29 GMT
People dont automatically become swivel-eyed Tory voters upon reaching a certain age though, so it'll be interesting to see if the notion that people drift further to the right as they age holds.
A lot of aging people have been quite fucked systemically, so whilst I'm sure some people will drift to the right I'm not sure it'll be as big a switch as it has in the past
|
|
|
|
Post by Vandelay on Jul 29, 2024 10:34:54 GMT
That is only assuming the old adage that you get more conservative as you get older. If accurate then, sure, our aging population would suggest we will see more conservative people. But, I don't see that being the case now. Pretty much all ages groups besides the over 65s hate the Tories and that isn't going to suddenly change when they crossover into that group.
Also, across most of Europe, you are seeing the rise of support for far right mostly coming from young people. That doesn't seem to be the case here for voting for the 18-30 or so group. But, if you take the younger people in the group (I think the 18-21 year olds was the survey I saw) you do see Reform have a bigger support than you would expect. I believe the survey I saw had them at about 20%, about 5% or so above the national average. That is even bigger when you also add in 16 year olds and ask them who they would vote for if they could (obvious caveats that these are likely not very vigorous surveys).
Come the next election, we could well see an increase of support for right wing parties coming not from older people, but actually the young.
|
|
askew
Full Member
Posts: 6,820
|
Post by askew on Jul 29, 2024 11:06:24 GMT
But by whom, Kemi?
|
|
|
|
Post by Whizzo on Jul 29, 2024 11:11:11 GMT
BadEnoch becoming leader will be a disaster so that's probably who they'll pick.
|
|
Bongo Heracles
Junior Member
Technically illegal to ride on public land
Posts: 4,656
Member is Online
|
Post by Bongo Heracles on Jul 29, 2024 11:57:48 GMT
She is the most fixated on ‘no, it’s the children who are wrong’ so it will actually be quite funny to see them impotently screaming into the void for the next few years.
By which I mean penning a never ending stream of columns for The Telegraph as they are the only outlet left who will entertain their bullshit
|
|
mcmonkeyplc
Junior Member
General Martok Qapla!
Posts: 3,091
|
Post by mcmonkeyplc on Jul 29, 2024 12:01:19 GMT
Speaking of the torygraph, is it me or have they gone into over drive about political stories recently?
It's like they were not that interested in government until Labour came into power. I wonder why...
(I don't wonder why)
|
|
|
|
Post by Danno on Jul 29, 2024 12:07:58 GMT
Speaking of the torygraph, is it me or have they gone into over drive about political stories recently? It's like they were not that interested in government until Labour came into power. I wonder why... (I don't wonder why) They're just wall to wall mad bastards |
|
|
|
Post by Bill in the rain on Jul 29, 2024 12:09:15 GMT
The idea that old people dying off will reduce the number of Tory voters seems mad to me. It has never happened before, and unless I've missed something old people have been dying off for many years.
The Tories are unpopular now partly because they were shit, but partly because of the part of the cycle we're in.
Give it 2 elections and people will have largely forgotten all the problems, and have had years of blaming Labour for everything that goes wrong.
There have been times in my life when people said Labour were unelectable, and the same about the Tories. It has never turned out to be remotely true.
In 2 or 3 parliaments time, there will be more old people, Labour will be less popular, old people will have largely forgotten the problems of the recent Tories, but the problems of Labour will be fresher in their mind, as will their house prices and pensions, and they'll convince themselves that the Tories have probably changed, or at least can't be as bad as the unpopular Labour government. It's what always happens.
The only thing that might throw it off is the wealth gap between generations getting even dramatically larger, and the situation for jobs and houses for young people getting dramatically worse, leading to social media driving youngsters to more populist parties.
|
|
Bongo Heracles
Junior Member
Technically illegal to ride on public land
Posts: 4,656
Member is Online
|
Post by Bongo Heracles on Jul 29, 2024 12:14:14 GMT
It’s not so much stories as columns, I think. They have an enormous cast of useful idiots spouting shit like ‘Kier Starmer is coming for your grans china’ because being a columnist is easier than doing actual journalism.
|
|
|
|
Post by Whizzo on Jul 29, 2024 12:26:37 GMT
The idea that old people dying off will reduce the number of Tory voters seems mad to me. It has never happened before, and unless I've missed something old people have been dying off for many years. Did you miss this part of my earlier post "Polling company Focaldata found that the age at which the Conservatives become the most popular party is 64, compared to 42 in 2019." A 22 year demographic shift in five years?! That's insane. |
|
zephro
Junior Member
Posts: 3,010
|
Post by zephro on Jul 29, 2024 12:32:40 GMT
Anyone aged between roughly their early 20s to their mid to late 40s is going to have an axe to grind with the Tories that they are not going to forget easily. Either the shite schooling and Uni experience for the low 20s, to everyone now rapidly approaching middle age who's been absolutely dicked by housing being unaffordable for their entire adult life.
The higher than expected numbers for 18-24 year olds into Reform is going to just be a symptom of how much people hate the fucking Tories right now.
Also how the fuck is Reeves going to be Osborne 2.0 when they've already started working on investment banks, GB Energy, nationalising rail franchises and a 22% pay rise for Junior Doctors? In what world is that anything like austerity?
|
|
|
|
Post by dfunked on Jul 29, 2024 12:42:19 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by Duffking on Jul 29, 2024 12:45:25 GMT
The idea that old people dying off will reduce the number of Tory voters seems mad to me. It has never happened before, and unless I've missed something old people have been dying off for many years. Did you miss this part of my earlier post "Polling company Focaldata found that the age at which the Conservatives become the most popular party is 64, compared to 42 in 2019." A 22 year demographic shift in five years?! That's insane. I think there's a truth somewhere in here. People often like to say that you become more conservative as you get older, because, well, most conservatives are older.
I think the reality is that people are generally a bit selfish and therefore as they become richer, they want to protect their wealth - which makes them more conservative fiscally because they perceive that as being the way to do so (typically because they don't realise/comprehend that taxation can actually make you wealthier indirectly - but having the NHS free at the point of service vs requiring insurance is a good example).
When the boomers were young you could start to amass some decent wealth relatively easily, but over the last 60 years or so the age at which you might be able to actually acquire some kind of wealth is progressively higher and higher. Hence the age at which the Conservatives get popular is later and later.
So they might self defeat eventually because eventually if they had their way 99% of people would be poor as fuck and eventually they'll stop blaming it on foreigners.
It's also why I think their heavy pushes toward racism/xenophobia etc etc aren't really going to help them that much, because I don't think you magically become racist just because you're old, you just haven't moved on from the prevailing social attitudes from when you were young. People who aren't bigots aren't going to become one just because they want your approach to the economy for some reason.
|
|
Bongo Heracles
Junior Member
Technically illegal to ride on public land
Posts: 4,656
Member is Online
|
Post by Bongo Heracles on Jul 29, 2024 12:48:51 GMT
Yup. The problem they have is that if the notion that you become more conservative as you get older to protect what you have, they have ensured that a generation have fuck all to protect.
That and the fact they are fucking useless and offer nothing to anyone. Like I’ve said a few times, I am their bread and butter. A middle aged white homeowner, kids and a reasonably well paying job and they offered me literally no incentive to vote for them in the last election unless I disliked migrants and trans people.
|
|
|
|
Post by Vandelay on Jul 29, 2024 12:55:00 GMT
Anyone aged between roughly their early 20s to their mid to late 40s is going to have an axe to grind with the Tories that they are not going to forget easily. Either the shite schooling and Uni experience for the low 20s, to everyone now rapidly approaching middle age who's been absolutely dicked by housing being unaffordable for their entire adult life.? And let's not forgot those in the older end of that group (and older) who have managed to get a house, who have recently suffered from huge increases to their mortgage rates, all directly at the hands of the Tory party. |
|
zephro
Junior Member
Posts: 3,010
|
Post by zephro on Jul 29, 2024 13:00:53 GMT
Anyone aged between roughly their early 20s to their mid to late 40s is going to have an axe to grind with the Tories that they are not going to forget easily. Either the shite schooling and Uni experience for the low 20s, to everyone now rapidly approaching middle age who's been absolutely dicked by housing being unaffordable for their entire adult life.? And let's not forgot those in the older end of that group (and older) who have managed to get a house, who have recently suffered from huge increases to their mortgage rates, all directly at the hands of the Tory party. Or anyone in that group with a mortgage, where the house is somehow both insanely more expensive (in terms of multiple of a median-high salary) than what your parents managed and somehow meaner and smaller with less out door space. OK admittedly I moved to London. But older Labour party members (as a sample set of people older than me I talk to) here are all sat on million pound+ family homes having been mid level state school teachers. People really fucking hate the Tories currently. They're not turning that around any time soon. Black Wednesday happened 5 years before the 97 election and people still considered the Tories clowns until the late 00s. |
|
