cubby
Full Member
doesn't get subtext
Posts: 6,397
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Post by cubby on Jul 10, 2024 20:42:18 GMT
#Honesty and #wedontleak are not usually bedfellows but Cruella seems to think they are
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Post by Bill in the rain on Jul 11, 2024 2:27:50 GMT
The fact that 47% of Conservative members think they should merge with Reform both surprises me, and also somehow doesn't surprise me at all.
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Frog
Full Member
Posts: 7,300
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Post by Frog on Jul 11, 2024 5:23:13 GMT
They put power above principals clearly.
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Post by tincanrocket on Jul 11, 2024 7:13:50 GMT
The fact that 47% of Conservative members think they should merge with Reform both surprises me, and also somehow doesn't surprise me at all. I'd imagine more than 50% of Conservative voters read the Daily Mail, so am not very surprised. Hopefully when the morons install Farage as leader any remaining vaguely human Con voters will final abandon the stinking ship.
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Post by dfunked on Jul 11, 2024 7:24:41 GMT
Given that everybody in the leadership race seems to be against merging with Reform, it'll probably just take one bright spark to change their mind and get a huge chunk of the members' vote. This membership contest is going to be absolutely chaotic.
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JonFE
Junior Member
Uncomfortably numb...
Posts: 1,960
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Post by JonFE on Jul 11, 2024 7:27:28 GMT
Now that the dust has settled, don't you find it concerning that the actual votes Labour got in the GE were less than their 2019 ones and that the total votes Tories and Farage got would put them above Labour had they combined forces before the GE? I know they probably would not, given the total shitshow Tories displayed, but it doesn't bode well for any future elections IMHO.
Also, between 2019 and 2024, a lot new voters should have been added, young voters that Tories did not cater for while in the government and should be displeased, yet they didn't choose to vote against them (because young people do not believe in politics?); isn't that troubling?
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Post by Dougs on Jul 11, 2024 7:31:13 GMT
No, because Labour targeted increasing vote share in marginal seats at the expense of increasing votes in safe seats.
As for Tory/Reform, pollsters looked at this. Not as straightforward as combining the votes - think it was something like only 25% of people who voted reform would have voted conservative as a second choice.
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Post by Reviewer on Jul 11, 2024 7:31:36 GMT
Not really as there was a lot of tactical voting going on.
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otto
New Member
Posts: 981
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Post by otto on Jul 11, 2024 7:38:29 GMT
Now that the dust has settled, don't you find it concerning that the actual votes Labour got in the GE were less than their 2019 ones and that the total votes Tories and Farage got would put them above Labour had they combined forces before the GE? I know they probably would not, given the total shitshow Tories displayed, but it doesn't bode well for any future elections IMHO. Also, between 2019 and 2024, a lot new voters should have been added, young voters that Tories did not cater for while in the government and should be displeased, yet they didn't choose to vote against them (because young people do not believe in politics?); isn't that troubling? To be honest, no, this doesn't trouble me. I think the Reform vote is very fragile, I think a lot of Labour voters didn't vote Labour because they thought the landslide win was a given, and the combined progressive vote was well over 50%, whereas the combined Tory/Reform vote was well under it. (I saw a news article yesterday that made the same point with some stats but I can't find it.)
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Post by Bill in the rain on Jul 11, 2024 7:54:09 GMT
Labour's vote share didn't really increase, but there were a lot more smaller parties gaining vote share. I never really got the argument about as time passing more liberal young people will appear, because that's never happened before. More younger voters come in, but all the other voters age up. People becoming more right wing as they get older isn't a 100% truth, but there is some truth to it. Plus younger people are probably more right wing these days due to social media. Given that everybody in the leadership race seems to be against merging with Reform, it'll probably just take one bright spark to change their mind and get a huge chunk of the members' vote. This membership contest is going to be absolutely chaotic. Braverman doesn't seem to be against it. But no-one likes her.
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Zyrr
New Member
Posts: 987
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Post by Zyrr on Jul 11, 2024 8:09:16 GMT
Braverman will definitely be the one to run her leadership bid on closer integration with Farage, but I honestly doubt the membership will vote for anyone but Jenrick in decent numbers as he'll gobble up the 'straight white racist' vote.
I did see a voxpop on some channel the other day, where some bodywarmer-wearing old twat said he wanted Suella for leader as "she knows what's what and she's worth ten of that Kier Starmer". Just hurry up and get in the ground you fucking moron.
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JonFE
Junior Member
Uncomfortably numb...
Posts: 1,960
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Post by JonFE on Jul 11, 2024 8:47:23 GMT
Labour's vote share didn't really increase, but there were a lot more smaller parties gaining vote share. I never really got the argument about as time passing more liberal young people will appear, because that's never happened before. More younger voters come in, but all the other voters age up. People becoming more right wing as they get older isn't a 100% truth, but there is some truth to it. Plus younger people are probably more right wing these days due to social media.
You are right, my point about younger voters choosing Labour over any other party (especially right-wing party), if they chose to even vote in the first place, is probably wishful thinking on my part. Perhaps it's also partly due to my age, because back when I was young, first time voters were either voting liberal parties or the party traditionally voted by their family (please note, I'm talking about things here in Greece, not the UK).
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Post by Bill in the rain on Jul 11, 2024 9:44:15 GMT
I guess it would make sense for first time voters to vote *against* the party that's been in power for most of their lives, and I think that's what happened with Blair, and maybe even with Cameron.
You could argue they did that though, it's just they did it with a wider range of parties (like the green party) rather than just flocking to Labour. (Just my guess, I have no idea about the demographics for each party)
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Post by Whizzo on Jul 11, 2024 10:40:37 GMT
Who could have predicted they'd fall out so fast?
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Post by Jambowayoh on Jul 11, 2024 10:58:50 GMT
Glol. Delicious. It's all delicious.
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Post by simple on Jul 11, 2024 11:01:05 GMT
Wasn’t turnout overall down on 2017 and 2019?
Given that, traditionally, non-voters tend to split along almost the exact same lines as voters (there is no silent majority), it doesn’t feel overly worrying that Labour received fewer votes if the share held up. I think the nation is just broadly exhausted by politics right now.
And in more “what if government just did its job” news - the FT is reporting that Job Centres are already being refocussed on helping people with their careers and finding jobs than benefit policing and dishing out punishments.
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Frog
Full Member
Posts: 7,300
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Post by Frog on Jul 11, 2024 11:03:15 GMT
Pretty sure Brenda wouldn't have voted, she is still annoyed about all the other ones.
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Rich
Junior Member
Posts: 1,993
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Post by Rich on Jul 11, 2024 11:20:10 GMT
FFS. As well as being a cunt, he's far better at this than I'll ever be.
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Post by peekconfusion on Jul 11, 2024 11:34:36 GMT
Who could have predicted they'd fall out so fast? "I've considered my position and I have decided that I like the grift too much to give it up"
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otto
New Member
Posts: 981
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Post by otto on Jul 11, 2024 11:40:00 GMT
Ed Miliband has announced an immediate ban on North Sea oil.
Loving his chaos clean energy
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Bongo Heracles
Junior Member
Technically illegal to ride on public land
Posts: 4,658
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Post by Bongo Heracles on Jul 11, 2024 11:44:53 GMT
The thing about the ‘mile wide and an inch deep’ criticism of their vote share is that it’s pretty much academic. They have a big fuck off majority regardless of vote numbers, they have five years to make it count.
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Post by manfromdelmonte on Jul 11, 2024 11:51:45 GMT
FFS. As well as being a cunt, he's far better at this than I'll ever be. Dark angel ain't bad. But he's boshed the Corax white on that Ulti.
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Post by DJCopa on Jul 11, 2024 12:18:09 GMT
Ed Miliband has announced an immediate ban on North Sea oil. Loving his chaos clean energy I'm sure Andrew Neil is taking this news well.
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cubby
Full Member
doesn't get subtext
Posts: 6,397
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Post by cubby on Jul 11, 2024 12:21:14 GMT
Ever since 97 the tories have had a problem with two wings under one banner. 2010 Cameron and Clegg were a reaction to the financial crisis, 2015 they managed to get the racist wing vote via the brexit referendum which gave them full power. 2019 again with getting brexit done and also the brexit party not standing against tory seats.
Now that they don't have brexit to play with and the gloves are off with reform the party is losing that vital racist vote to farage. As long as reform don't repeat 2019 by standing aside in tory seats, I don't see the tories really making any gains again in the next 20 years. But I wouldn't be surprised if reform do do that again to be honest.
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Post by DJCopa on Jul 11, 2024 12:26:43 GMT
...surprised if reform do do that again to be honest. I have nothing to add apart from 'reform do do' sounds apt.
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Bongo Heracles
Junior Member
Technically illegal to ride on public land
Posts: 4,658
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Post by Bongo Heracles on Jul 11, 2024 12:35:12 GMT
I think people like my father-in-law, who is a Classic Tory, would be happy for most of them to fuck off and join reform.
He’s very much that old school small government, work hard, get rewarded brand of conservatism rather than the reactionary, isolationist clown show the party has evolved into. I suppose one of them has to rip the plaster off and leave for pastures new.
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Post by manfromdelmonte on Jul 11, 2024 12:59:31 GMT
The Tories we've seen over the last 14 years, certainly electorally. Were forged in those 3 terms out of power. The absolute desperation, the flailing, the smearing. They're fucking terrified of a centre left Labour, just getting on and doing the job of governing, successfully
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Post by rawshark on Jul 11, 2024 13:09:27 GMT
Hypothetical question here...
However unlikely, say Suella Braverman were expelled from the Tory party and welcomed with open arms by Reform. Would that mean her seat in Fareham and Waterlooville would becoime a Reform seat or would her being expelled mean she loses the seat?
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Post by jimnastics on Jul 11, 2024 13:18:29 GMT
Hypothetical question here... However unlikely, say Suella Braverman were expelled from the Tory party and welcomed with open arms by Reform. Would that mean her seat in Fareham and Waterlooville would becoime a Reform seat or would her being expelled mean she loses the seat? That's just an enforced case of "crossing the floor" I guess, though not actually crossing the floor in that case. She'd keep her seat.
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mcmonkeyplc
Junior Member
General Martok Qapla!
Posts: 3,093
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Post by mcmonkeyplc on Jul 11, 2024 13:22:45 GMT
Didn't 30p Lee do this for the first Reform seat?
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