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Post by Danno on May 18, 2024 23:26:13 GMT
The guy at the bottom tied to everyone else must have the willpower of a superhero because I would be jumping the fuck off just as climbing Chad #1 reached for the summit to spoil so, so, so many cunty hopes and dreams. And I'd probably get my balls out first too.
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hicksy
Junior Member
I'm good for some but I'm not for everyone
Posts: 1,587
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Post by hicksy on May 19, 2024 6:44:52 GMT
Nothing like a brisk wind up under them free radicals.
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lukasz
New Member
Meat popsicle
Posts: 684
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Post by lukasz on May 20, 2024 5:46:01 GMT
www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/05/20/japan/society/japan-2120-future-cities-depopulation/So bunch of articles have been popping up for me to read as I am interested in the topic of growing/shrinking of global population. So South Korea is very affected but Japan is as well as they lack western world immigration while having similar low birth rates. SK is way "worse". The one linked though particularly pissed me off. It says shrinking population will be worse than global warming. At no point it says why it would be bad. Economy will not grow... So? Why is that a bad thing? Land prices will go down... So? Why is that a bad thing? Japan is interesting case as they had no population growth in 10 years. It impacted among others their national debt which doubled since 2000s. So other articles are suggesting that servicing of that debt as well as increase of it will result to financial collapse as aging population will be the drain on the resource but no young workforce to fix the issues. But there is no viable suggestion that this financial collapse will result in actual collapse. Nobody will go homeless as there are empty places to live as population is shrinking Nobody will go hungry as we need very little manpower to actually feed people Issue of taking care of old people vs lack of staff for it... is sortof self-correcting if you know what I mean. So also not that big of a deal. So far I haven't seen a reliable counter point which will show why lack of population growth is a bad thing. Sorry bout the rant.
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Post by Bill in the rain on May 20, 2024 7:45:43 GMT
Just imho, not researched, but...
The issue is the ratio of workers to non-workers as the population ages, as the workers are the ones who need to not only provide the care staff, but also pay for the healthcare, pension, etc.. which gets exponentially more expensive as more people get older and people live longer.
I'm not sure it's self correcting, unless the lack of care and resources leads to more elderly people dying. Which I guess would be one reason that a lack of growth would be considered a bad thing - thousands of elderly people living in poverty or dying from lack of care. In the long run this would lead to lifespans shortening, which might even things out. But that's effectively putting us back in the dark ages.
Japan might luck out in that advances in AI and Robotics might counteract the reduction in younger workers. Though AI and Robots don't pay taxes. Or buy products. And someone has to pay for the AI and Robots.
Taxpayers also pay for things like schools, infrastructure etc.. so those could also be squeezed.
In a global economy the country's economic output doesn't exist in a vacuum. If the country's economy is weak relative to other countries then imports (food, energy, etc..) can get much more expensive leading to a cost of living crisis, plus more younger people departing to work overseas, plus a loss of power and influence globally.
All of which could lead to people having less kids, reinforcing the cycle. (until things get so bad that we're back to 3rd world conditions and people need to have loads of kids to work, look after the parents, and so some remain after a few die off).
Things can also get very unbalanced internally. All the young workers move to Tokyo because that's where the jobs are, leaving all the rural areas as empty, underfunded ghost towns with no schools and services, and only a load of elderly people taking advantage of the cheap houses. (though this might even out in the long term, especially if remote work is acceptable). But if the rural areas have no schools then are the young families gonna move there even if the houses are cheap?
A lack of population growth isn't exactly a bad thing in and of itself, but the demographics need to be sustainable.
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MolarAm🔵
Full Member
Bad at games
Posts: 6,869
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Post by MolarAm🔵 on May 20, 2024 7:56:01 GMT
I mean, in Japan's case, the tradition is that the elderly are taken care of by their kids, and fewer kids means fewer caregivers. Yes there are retirement homes, but they are understaffed and overpopulated with residents.
Maybe that all will (and should) change, but in the meantime you've got thousands of elderly people who are living alone, without any relatives or support, and often they are dying alone. I've heard about a lot of cases where the corpse is found in their home months later, because nobody checked in on them.
So, that's one potential effect of an ageing (and declining) population. Maybe you don't believe that matters on a macro "the world has too many people anyway" level, but on a micro level it's pretty disturbing imo.
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Post by drhickman1983 on May 20, 2024 8:00:44 GMT
The current system isn't sustainable basically.
Personally I think it's utterly broken but I'm in no position to offer any fixes, but it's similar to how I can tell an engine is fucked but can't offer any mechanical advice. It feels similar.
I don't think we'd see a total collapse of society but there is a good question about who is going to pay for the healthcare and pensions of the aging population.
Infinite growth isn't sustainable. Chances of an alternative system coming into place is slim though given how all the power and money funnels up towards people with a interest in keeping late stage capitalism going for as long as possible.
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Post by Bill in the rain on May 20, 2024 8:41:37 GMT
You need a fertility rate of about 2.1 to sustain the current population. The UK (and a lot of developing countries) is well below that at about 1.7
The global fertility rate is about 2.3, but it's been falling for decades. (was almost 5 in 1970!).
As such, we could be heading to a more stable global population. But it's very unequal between countries.
Which is why it kinda makes sense for immigration to even out those inequalities.
Whatever issues global capitalism has had for things like the environment, we've mostly had 75+ years of improvements in healthcare and life expectancy. Again, uneven depending on the country, but the gaps are mostly closing. As life expectancy and economies improve, birth rates tend to fall anyway.
So ideally we'd hit a point where global fertility was steady and life expectancy was good and equal.
The problem, of course, is that all those people born back in the 1950s-70s are aging now, especially in developed countries, so that, combined with the longer lifespans, means a huge demographic imbalance. At least for a few decades.
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Post by drhickman1983 on May 20, 2024 8:48:41 GMT
But as birthrates fall, the argument is that the economy will potentially start to struggle as there's less money coming in to support the increasing number of old fogeys not working for longer.
Immigration can help plug that gap but seeing how xenophobic many countries currently are it's not seen as a good option.
I'm part of the problem maybe as I'm never having kids.
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Post by Bill in the rain on May 20, 2024 8:59:08 GMT
Raising the pension age probably makes sense in a lot of developed countries, depending on the average lifespan.
Though the real wildcard is AI and Robotics. Because if a large percentage of workers get replaced by those then I dunno who's gonna be paying for the elderly or buying products.
It'd probably make sense to set up a system asap that taxes companies for AI/Robot workers at a rate equal to the income you'd get from an equivalent worker. Though how exactly you'd calculate how many workers an AI is equivalent to, I have no idea.
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hicksy
Junior Member
I'm good for some but I'm not for everyone
Posts: 1,587
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Post by hicksy on May 20, 2024 12:26:08 GMT
I personally look forward to being a head in a jar on a robot.
Fear me (until I reach some stairs)!
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loto
Junior Member
Posts: 1,054
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Post by loto on May 21, 2024 12:02:02 GMT
The Singapore airlines flight that hit severe turbulence, apparently fell 6000ft in about 3mins. That’s 33 feet per second - that’s essentially freefall in gravity isn’t it? Must have been utterly fucking terrifying (and there was one fatality plus other injuries on board)
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cubby
Full Member
doesn't get subtext
Posts: 6,397
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Post by cubby on May 21, 2024 12:08:08 GMT
Not quite, my calculation has 6000 feet if it was freefall would take 19 seconds.
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hicksy
Junior Member
I'm good for some but I'm not for everyone
Posts: 1,587
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Post by hicksy on May 21, 2024 14:28:26 GMT
Totally trouser ruining experience. Feel sorry for them all! Another gift of global warming sound like more turbulent flights more often…
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loto
Junior Member
Posts: 1,054
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Post by loto on May 21, 2024 15:29:22 GMT
cubby - yeah, my bad, it’s 32 feet per second per second, so this was terrifying but a lot less than free fall after the first second.
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Post by damagedinc on May 21, 2024 16:13:21 GMT
I thought I read it descended 6ft in 3 minutes in prep for an emergency landing, due to the man who sadly died.
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minimatt
Junior Member
hyper mediocrity
Posts: 1,693
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Post by minimatt on May 21, 2024 16:36:19 GMT
yeah, think they're saying that 6000 feet bit is controlled, albeit emergency, descent but the injuries are reported from people hitting *the ceiling* which would imply periods where the plane was dropping *faster* than gravity my only scary plane story involved a large American lady shouting actual verbatim "oh my god we're all gonna die", lightning forking off the wings, two attempted landings before last second max power screaming engine aborts & an eventual divert to Newark "before we run out of fuel" ... and as grim as that was, it didn't come close to people bouncing off the fucking ceiling.
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Post by damagedinc on May 21, 2024 17:04:20 GMT
Probably at a point where people will be told to always have seatbelts on.
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Post by Bill in the rain on May 22, 2024 2:50:20 GMT
Long time ago my mates were on a budget flight to Belgium when some people and bags hit the ceiling. I don't think there were any real injuries, so it wasn't as bad as this. But scary apparently as there were a few people rather stressed out at the airport before the return flight.
Luckily I was on an earlier flight.
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Post by mothercruncher on May 22, 2024 7:05:26 GMT
I saw a video of a stewardess suddenly smacking into the ceiling and people in seats- thankfully with seatbelts on- but nevertheless ploughing headfirst into the seat in front of them. Those situations really are a lottery, my word.
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Post by damagedinc on May 22, 2024 7:10:48 GMT
I saw a video of a stewardess suddenly smacking into the ceiling and people in seats- thankfully with seatbelts on- but nevertheless ploughing headfirst into the seat in front of them. Those situations really are a lottery, my word. That was sky sharing a video from 5 years ago. Journalism at its best
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Post by mothercruncher on May 22, 2024 9:39:12 GMT
Ha, my word.
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Post by mothercruncher on May 22, 2024 9:40:57 GMT
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Post by LegendaryApe on May 22, 2024 9:55:32 GMT
I knew I shouldn't be sticking those plastic straws down my willy
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Lizard
Junior Member
I love ploughmans
Posts: 4,492
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Post by Lizard on May 23, 2024 6:38:29 GMT
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Post by Danno on May 23, 2024 7:49:57 GMT
Jesus christ that opening picture
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Post by Bill in the rain on May 23, 2024 7:56:17 GMT
Jeez. All that fuss and they're not even Asian GIANT Hornets. They're just regular little Asian Hornets.
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Post by Bill in the rain on May 23, 2024 9:06:49 GMT
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cubby
Full Member
doesn't get subtext
Posts: 6,397
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Post by cubby on May 23, 2024 9:35:10 GMT
I had no idea Livenation was a collection of smiling teenagers.
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Ulythium
Full Member
Lily-livered
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Post by Ulythium on May 24, 2024 9:22:46 GMT
Lucy Letby has been denied permission to appeal against her murder/attempted murder convictions: www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9773l3qzl4oThe judges' full reasoning has been kept secret for now, as Letby's facing a retrial later in the year and they don't want to risk prejudicing those proceedings.
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Post by Jambowayoh on May 24, 2024 13:14:45 GMT
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